The India Meteorological Department has forecasted a hotter-than-normal summer for 2026, with above-normal heatwave days expected from March to May across most parts of the country. North Tamil Nadu and coastal areas are particularly likely to experience searing heat exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in plains. This comes after a warm February, the fifth-warmest since 1901.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on February 28, 2026, that India is set to face a hotter-than-normal summer this year. Heatwave days during March and May are expected to exceed the seasonal average, with above-normal maximum temperatures forecasted for the summer months. In March, the first month of summer, minimum temperatures are likely to remain above average across most areas, according to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the IMD.
February recorded both maximum and minimum temperatures above average, marking it as the fifth-warmest February since records began in 1901, per IMD data. The winter season in Tamil Nadu concluded with a substantial rainfall surplus, but the state now braces for intense heat. North Tamil Nadu and some coastal parts may see above-normal heatwave days between March and May, where heatwaves are declared when maximum temperatures exceed 40 degrees Celsius in plains and 30 degrees Celsius in hilly regions.
This forecast could impact health, water supply, and power demand in affected areas. For agriculture, above-average temperatures in March might affect the grain size of maturing winter crops like wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas, potentially reducing yields. India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer and biggest importer of edible oils, relies on strong 2026 harvests to export surplus wheat and reduce imports of palm, soy, and sunflower oils.
“Above-normal heatwave days are expected over most parts of the country during March to May 2026,” said Mr. Mohapatra.
