The Green Bay Packers travel to face the Chicago Bears on Saturday night in a critical Week 16 clash for NFC North supremacy. With the Bears leading at 10-4 and the Packers at 9-4-1, a win could position Chicago to clinch the division while Green Bay aims to complete a season sweep. Injuries on both sides add intrigue to the high-stakes affair.
The Chicago Bears enter Week 16 atop the NFC North with a 10-4 record, but their lead is precarious. A victory over the Green Bay Packers could bring them close to wrapping up the division title, one of the more unexpected crowns in recent memory. The Packers, sitting at 9-4-1, have dropped to the No. 7 seed after recent results but hold a 1.5-game edge over the 8-6 Detroit Lions, having already swept that season series.
Chicago's offense has leaned heavily on the run over the past six weeks, posting top-seven EPA per play and top-four success rate. They run the ball at a 53 percent clip in neutral situations since Week 9, averaging 34.6 rushing attempts and 179 yards per game. D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai have split carries evenly in recent outings, with Swift holding 49 to Monangai's 47 over the last three games, though the veteran has been more efficient. Against a Green Bay defense that has faced the NFL's lowest neutral pass rate of 44 percent since Week 9, the Bears could see 30-40 combined touches from their backfield duo, making both viable options in standard leagues.
However, injuries hamper Chicago's passing attack. Wide receivers Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III are out, leaving D.J. Moore as the top target and tight end Colston Loveland poised for increased routes—he's posted a 26 percent targets per route run rate over the past three games. Quarterback Caleb Williams has been a dual-threat, averaging 1.7 designed rushes per game and handling 20.9 percent of red-zone carries.
The Packers, meanwhile, are without edge rusher Micah Parsons for the season and center Zach Tom is unlikely to play, but wideout Christian Watson appears ready after limited practices. Jordan Love has boosted his mobility, averaging 13.7 rushing yards per game this season. Analysts predict Green Bay could limit the Bears to under 100 rushing yards while staying turnover-free against Chicago's takeaway-leading defense, potentially seizing the division lead.
Betting markets list the Packers as slight underdogs at +106 moneyline, with models favoring them by 2.5 points. The Bears rank 13th in pass offense efficiency, and the falloff after Moore and Loveland raises questions about their aerial production.
