The New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in the NFL divisional round at Gillette Stadium, with cold temperatures and a chance of light snow in the forecast. Both teams advanced with strong defensive performances in the wild-card round, setting up a low-scoring battle between young quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Drake Maye. Oddsmakers favor the Patriots by three points, anticipating a defensive struggle.
The New England Patriots and Houston Texans are set for an AFC divisional round clash on Sunday, January 18, at 3 p.m. ET in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The game will air on ESPN and ABC, with streaming available on fubo. Weather conditions could play a significant role, with forecasts calling for a high of 38 degrees Fahrenheit, winds of 6 mph with gusts up to 12 mph, and a 55% chance of light snow that is not expected to accumulate or stick.
Both teams showcased elite defenses in the wild-card round. The Texans dominated the Pittsburgh Steelers, holding them to just six points while their defense scored two touchdowns and limited Pittsburgh to 2 of 14 third-down conversions. In contrast, the Patriots stifled the Los Angeles Chargers in a 16-3 victory, sacking Justin Herbert six times and allowing only a field goal.
Houston's C.J. Stroud struggled with ball security against Pittsburgh, throwing an interception and losing two fumbles, with three additional fumbled snaps recovered by the Texans. This comes after a season where the Texans ranked second in the NFL with a 42.5% pressure rate, led by Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Stroud's third consecutive divisional round appearance will test him in the cold, unfamiliar for a team accustomed to Houston's dome and warm climate.
New England's Drake Maye, in his second career playoff start, managed 235 passing yards and a touchdown, plus 66 rushing yards on 10 carries against the Chargers, despite five sacks and an interception. The Patriots' rookie left-side offensive line—tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson—faced pressure issues last week and now confronts Houston's fierce pass rush.
Injuries add intrigue: The Texans may miss top receiver Nico Collins due to a concussion, though Christian Kirk impressed with eight catches for 144 yards and a touchdown versus Pittsburgh. New England's Christian Gonzalez is expected back from his own concussion.
Oddsmakers list the Patriots as 3-point favorites with a total of 40.5 points, predicting a defensive affair where non-sticking snow could hinder passing and benefit footing for defenses. Analysts predict a close game, with the Patriots edging out a 24-20 win, citing Houston's travel fatigue on a short week and New England's defensive momentum.