Bank of America analysts have recommended buying Tesla stock, forecasting a price of $460 per share driven by the company's advancements in robotaxis and autonomous driving. This outlook comes despite a decline in Tesla's 2025 vehicle sales, as the firm highlights the potential for robotaxis to account for more than half of the company's valuation. The projection implies about 13% upside from recent trading levels around $402 to $406.
Tesla's stock has faced volatility in early 2026, declining 13% year-to-date after doubling between April and December 2025. On March 5, 2026, shares traded at $401.67 on Nasdaq, according to Bank of America, while another report noted $406. The bank's note to investors emphasized Tesla's leadership in the "Auto 2.0 landscape and next era of mobility," with analyst Alexander Perry stating, "We expect TSLA to quickly become a leader in robotaxi services, given its ability to scale more profitably than competitors."
Tesla's robotaxi operations currently run in San Francisco and Austin, with plans for seven additional markets in the first half of 2026. Perry highlighted Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software as the leading consumer autonomy solution, with 1.1 million subscriptions, or about 12% of the fleet, and a goal of 10 million tied to CEO Elon Musk's stock award plan. The bank assigns more than 50% of Tesla's valuation to robotaxis, compared to 21% from its core car business.
This optimism persists despite challenges in the EV market. Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles globally in 2025, a 10% decline from 2024, allowing Chinese rival BYD to surpass it with 2.26 million units and claim the top spot as the world's largest EV seller. Revenue fell 3% to $94.8 billion in 2025, with automotive gross margins at 16%, though energy storage margins reached nearly 30%. Tesla plans $20 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, up from $9 billion the prior year, to support innovation in autonomy and robotics.
The company is pivoting, transitioning its Fremont factory to produce Optimus humanoid robots after ending Model S and X production in late January 2026. Volume production of the Cybercab, a steering-wheel-less autonomous vehicle, is slated for April 2026 at Giga Texas. FSD is considered Level 2 autonomy by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, requiring driver attention, with an upcoming NHTSA deadline on March 9, 2026, for safety data on robotaxi pilots. Other analysts vary: the Wall Street average target is $421.60, RBC Capital Markets sees $500, Wedbush $600, and JPMorgan $145.
For buyers, the average new Tesla price was $52,628 in January 2026, down 2% from December, with EV incentives averaging 12.4% of the $55,715 transaction price, or about $6,908 off. Tesla vehicles depreciate 55% over five years, better than the 59-60% for other EVs.
