Soybean prices have risen more than corn prices amid the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran, despite larger global soybean stocks. AgRural analyst attributes this to soybeans' more concentrated production and harder substitution. Brazilian producers saw gains offset by logistics costs.
Daniele Siqueira, an analyst at AgRural, noted that soybean prices react more strongly to geopolitical tensions than corn prices. Amid the war involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, soybeans rose from $10.6425 per bushel at the end of January to $11.7075 before the conflict and $11.7375 on Thursday (27). Corn, from $4.2825, peaked at $4.76 on March 9 but fell back to $4.67 on Thursday (26), despite smaller global stocks at 23% of consumption—the lowest since 2012/13. Soybean stocks stand at 125.3 million tons, versus 93.5 million in 2022, with a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 30% for the 2025/26 crop, up from 26% in 2021/22. Siqueira stated: 'soybean production and demand are more concentrated, and substitution is harder.' Corn, with dispersed production, can be replaced by sorghum or wheat. In Brazil, in Cascavel (PR), the soybean sack price increased from R$116.50 to R$119, and the price to China from $461.50 to $477.5 per ton. However, internal logistics costs offset producer gains. Unlike the Russia-Ukraine war, which directly hit supply, the current conflict raises production and freight costs, potentially shrinking planted areas and input use, with future impacts. 'The current situation is more delicate not for what has happened so far, but for what may occur down the line,' Siqueira said.
