Brazil nears China beef export quota fill by May as prices hit record high

As Beijing's tariff approaches, Brazil's exporters are rapidly filling their quota for beef to China, prompting South American industry to seek new buyers. The benchmark price for finished cattle tracked by the University of Sao Paulo's Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics hit R$365 (US$71.57) per arroba (11.5-15kg) on Wednesday, up 12.5 per cent over the past 12 months amid a rush to ship before the quota closes. Daily average shipments reached 10,630 tonnes, 8.6 per cent above March 2025 and 40.7 per cent above the same period in 2024.

Brazil's beef exporters are rushing shipments to China to meet their annual quota before the window closes, according to the South China Morning Post. The benchmark price for finished cattle, tracked by the Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics at the University of Sao Paulo, reached R$365 (US$71.57) per arroba (11.5-15kg) on Wednesday—a 12.5 per cent gain over the past 12 months driven by the urgency to export.

Daily average exports hit 10,630 tonnes in April, 8.6 per cent above March 2025 levels and 40.7 per cent higher than the same period in 2024. Monthly export revenue approached R$7 billion (US$1.37 billion), with an average price of R$29,900 (US$5,863) per tonne.

Industry participants consider shipments beyond the quota threshold commercially unviable as Beijing's tariff looms. Brazilian exporters are now seeking alternative buyers in markets including Argentina, Uruguay, Hong Kong and South Korea to offload excess supply.

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Argentine and US officials shake hands sealing trade deal expanding beef exports to 100,000 tons.
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Argentina signs trade agreement with the United States

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Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno announced a trade agreement between Argentina and the United States that expands the beef export quota to 100,000 tons and removes tariff barriers in key sectors. The deal aims to strengthen bilateral economic ties and could boost exports by up to $1,013 million. The agricultural sector, particularly meat exporters, hailed the pact as a major step forward.

Brazil's beef exports to China surged in January 2026, risking exhaustion of the annual quota by September. The government warns that uncontrolled shipments could trigger a domestic price collapse and job losses in the cattle sector. China has set a 55 percent tariff on imports exceeding the quota.

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Brazilian officials lack clarity on whether beef shipments en route to China will count against Beijing's new import quotas announced last week. The volume is small relative to 2025 exports, but the industry fears sales disruptions amid the broader safeguard measures affecting major exporters like Argentina and Australia.

Brazil's pulp exports hit a record in 2025, with 22.25 million tons and revenues of US$ 10.25 billion. However, expert Andreas Mirow warns of a potential structural imbalance between supply and demand in coming years.

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The Rosario Grain Exchange projects that grain production in the 2025/26 campaign will reach a record 154.8 million tons, 12% above the previous historical high. However, exports will generate only $36.8 billion due to falling international prices. Corn and wheat will lead this production growth.

Brazil's trade deficit with the United States jumped from US$ 283 million in 2024 to US$ 7.5 billion in 2025, multiplying by 26 following tariff measures imposed by President Donald Trump. This marks the 17th consecutive year the goods flow favors Americans, with Brazilian exports dropping 6.6% and imports rising 11%. Brazilian officials attribute part of the impact to tariffs, but also to internal economic factors and reduced demand for oil.

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China's trade with Peru, Chile, and Ecuador has reached record levels, driven by mineral demand and the new Chancay port. Despite US President-elect Donald Trump's threats, Beijing's economic ties in the region are strengthening under the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

 

 

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