随着北京关税临近，巴西出口商正迅速用尽对华牛肉配额，迫使南美行业寻找新买家。圣保罗大学应用经济学高级研究中心追踪的肥牛基准价格周三达到每阿罗巴（11.5-15公斤）365雷亚尔（71.57美元），过去12个月上涨12.5%。每日平均出口量达10,630吨，远超去年同期。
巴西牛肉出口商正加速向中国发货，以赶在配额窗口关闭前完成年度额度。根据南华早报报道，圣保罗大学应用经济学高级研究中心的数据显示，肥牛基准价格周三升至每阿罗巴365雷亚尔，相当于71.57美元。这一价格较过去12个月上涨12.5%，主要受出口商抢运所推动。
4月每日平均出口量为10,630吨，比2025年3月高8.6%，比2024年同期高40.7%。本月出口收入约70亿雷亚尔（13.7亿美元），平均每吨价格29,900雷亚尔（5,863美元）。
配额用尽后，超出额度的发货将被视为行业参与者眼中的商业上不可行，因为北京即将实施关税。巴西出口商因此开始转向其他市场，如阿根廷、乌拉圭、香港和韩国，以消化剩余库存。
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Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno announced a trade agreement between Argentina and the United States that expands the beef export quota to 100,000 tons and removes tariff barriers in key sectors. The deal aims to strengthen bilateral economic ties and could boost exports by up to $1,013 million. The agricultural sector, particularly meat exporters, hailed the pact as a major step forward.
2026年1月巴西对华牛肉出口激增，使年度配额面临提前耗尽的风险，预计9月前达到上限。巴西政府警告，若不控制出口，可能导致国内价格崩盘和畜牧业就业损失。中国对超额进口征收55%的关税。
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Brazilian officials lack clarity on whether beef shipments en route to China will count against Beijing's new import quotas announced last week. The volume is small relative to 2025 exports, but the industry fears sales disruptions amid the broader safeguard measures affecting major exporters like Argentina and Australia.
Brazil's pulp exports hit a record in 2025, with 22.25 million tons and revenues of US$ 10.25 billion. However, expert Andreas Mirow warns of a potential structural imbalance between supply and demand in coming years.
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The Rosario Grain Exchange projects that grain production in the 2025/26 campaign will reach a record 154.8 million tons, 12% above the previous historical high. However, exports will generate only $36.8 billion due to falling international prices. Corn and wheat will lead this production growth.
Brazil's trade deficit with the United States jumped from US$ 283 million in 2024 to US$ 7.5 billion in 2025, multiplying by 26 following tariff measures imposed by President Donald Trump. This marks the 17th consecutive year the goods flow favors Americans, with Brazilian exports dropping 6.6% and imports rising 11%. Brazilian officials attribute part of the impact to tariffs, but also to internal economic factors and reduced demand for oil.
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中国与秘鲁、智利和厄瓜多尔的贸易达到纪录水平，受矿产需求和新港口驱动。尽管美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的威胁，北京在该地区的经济联系在“一带一路”倡议下正在加强。