2026年1月巴西对华牛肉出口激增，使年度配额面临提前耗尽的风险，预计9月前达到上限。巴西政府警告，若不控制出口，可能导致国内价格崩盘和畜牧业就业损失。中国对超额进口征收55%的关税。
巴西牛肉对华出口正以创纪录的速度增长，据圣保罗大学应用经济高级研究中心（Cepea）的研究人员周二表示，如果1月份的出口速度持续，巴西将在2026年底前耗尽其110.6万吨的年度配额，预计9月前达到上限。1月份，巴西向中国出口了119,630吨牛肉，这是1月份有史以来最大量。
中国宣布，2026年超过固定国家配额的进口将面临55%的关税，远高于标准的12%税率。该措施适用于巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭和美国。对于巴西，上限约为110万吨。超过该阈值的出口将面临商业上不可行的风险。
在上周巴西报纸《圣保罗页报》（Folha de S. Paulo）获得的农业部内部信件中，该部表示，缺乏协调响应可能导致“贸易流程的强烈紊乱”，并增加“价格和就业崩盘”的风险，整个牛肉供应链将受影响。巴西利亚正在权衡出口限制，以避免国内价格暴跌和就业损失。
Cepea指出，这种激增源于市场需求，但政府强调需要协调以维持国内市场稳定。
As Beijing's tariff approaches, Brazil's exporters are rapidly filling their quota for beef to China, prompting South American industry to seek new buyers. The benchmark price for finished cattle tracked by the University of Sao Paulo's Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics hit R$365 (US$71.57) per arroba (11.5-15kg) on Wednesday, up 12.5 per cent over the past 12 months amid a rush to ship before the quota closes. Daily average shipments reached 10,630 tonnes, 8.6 per cent above March 2025 and 40.7 per cent above the same period in 2024.
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Beijing renewed import licences for hundreds of US beef plants during US President Donald Trump’s visit to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Brazil nears its annual beef export quota to China and is seeking alternative markets.
The average price per kilo of beef reached $31,819 in the last week of April, up 5.4% since January, according to Dane data. This rise occurs amid a debate on exports and price controls pushed by the Government. Year-over-year, the increase is 15.6%.
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Mexico reported nearly 700 New World screwworm cases this month, with 40% in the week ending April 2, according to the USDA. The spread near the border is accelerating, likely extending the suspension of live cattle imports to the United States. Texas faces increased risks of the parasite reaching its herds.