Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has cautioned traders against trying to manufacture a bull market, pointing to declining market breadth indicators. Bitcoin reached highs above $126,000 in 2025 before pulling back to the $90,000 range amid macroeconomic uncertainty. A recent report highlights reduced activity in options markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Crypto markets have shown signs of strain following Bitcoin's peak in 2025. Analyst Benjamin Cowen stated on Tuesday that traders should stop attempting to force a bull market. He highlighted the Advance Decline Index (ADI) for the top 100 cryptocurrencies, which has been in a downtrend since 2021. This indicator measures market breadth and helps identify trends and divergences.
Cowen noted that the 2020-2021 bull run involved broad participation across various crypto assets, not just Bitcoin. In contrast, recent rallies have been defensive, with investors shifting from altcoins to Bitcoin, masking weaknesses in the broader market. As Bitcoin's momentum wanes, the altcoin sector appears fragile, with liquidity becoming increasingly thin.
Bitcoin's price history underscores these dynamics. From its 2020 low, it surged over 1,600% during the 2021 bull market. In 2025, it hit new all-time highs above $126,000 mid-year, fueled by institutional demand and macroeconomic factors. However, by late 2025 and into early 2026, it retreated to the high $80,000s to mid $90,000s due to profit-taking and economic uncertainty. Despite regulatory progress and optimism around U.S. legislation, Bitcoin traded at $94,913 on Wednesday, up 3.2% in the last 24 hours but down 24.71% from its October 2025 peak. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted from bearish to bullish with normal activity levels.
Supporting Cowen's view, a Matrixport analysis indicates that options markets are no longer significantly influencing prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum options exposure peaked in mid-to-late 2025 before dropping sharply. Bitcoin's notional options exposure fell from about $52 billion to $28 billion, with Ethereum seeing similar declines, signaling reduced leveraged betting.