The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to keep the Selic rate at 15% per year on Wednesday (5). Experts say this continues to make post-fixed and inflation-indexed fixed income investments attractive. Despite projections of future cuts, returns remain high for conservative profiles.
The Copom's decision to keep the Selic at 15% per year particularly favors post-fixed titles linked to the Selic or CDI, according to experts consulted by Folha. Rafael Winalda, fixed income specialist at Inter, states: "The maintenance affects very little in the short term, and we still see the CDI and Tesouro Selic performing very well." He highlights that, even with the easing cycle ahead, yields until maturity will remain high, with Boletim Focus projections pointing to Selic at 12.25% by the end of next year. "Yields fall with lower interest rates, but the level remains very attractive. It's an excellent rate, especially for more conservative clients," Winalda adds.
A C6 survey estimates that the Tesouro Selic maturing in 2028 offers a net real return of 6.67%, after tax and projected inflation, for a one-year allocation. Lais Costa, analyst at Empiricus Research, emphasizes the low volatility of post-fixed assets, ideal for those seeking liquidity.
Recommendations include IPCA-indexed titles, with Tesouro Direto offering real rates above 7% on Wednesday. For 2029, it promises inflation plus 8%; for 2040, plus 7.32%. Winalda warns: "IPCA+ is the opportunity now, but it's good to warn that there will be volatility with the 2026 election," citing increased spending by the Lula government in the re-election race, which could raise inflation and Selic.
Marcelo Freller from C6 Bank describes the fiscal scenario as "complicated," influenced by external pressures like the Fed's US rate cuts, which could strengthen the dollar and pressure Brazilian inflation. For prefixed assets, he suggests short terms, with rates around 13%, per Marcos Praça of Zero Markets Brazil: "The prefixed is still worth for the short term, because it's frozen at the maximum [around 13%]. The next step is to fall".
In private fixed income, such as debentures, LCIs, and LCAs, there are opportunities in tax-exempt ones, but with caution, especially in agribusiness. Winalda notes: "Agribusiness companies are in a very delicate moment, with judicial recoveries and high leverage, even with record harvests."