Valuasi perusahaan TI India anjlok mendekati level krisis subprime

Perusahaan eksportir TI India mengalami penurunan valuasi saham ke level yang terakhir terlihat pada krisis subprime 2008-09. Perusahaan-perusahaan tersebut kini diperdagangkan dengan rasio harga terhadap laba (P/E) di kisaran 15 hingga 18 setelah kehilangan hampir 30 persen nilainya pada tahun 2026. Kemajuan AI dan persaingan baru disebut sebagai pemicu utama penurunan tersebut.

Perusahaan eksportir TI India termasuk Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, dan Wipro telah mengalami penurunan tajam dalam nilai pasar. Valuasi mereka kini mendekati level yang tercatat pada periode krisis keuangan 2008-09, dengan saham yang diperdagangkan pada rasio P/E 15-18.

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The Nifty IT index fell more than 6% to a three-year low on concerns triggered by Accenture's lowered revenue forecast. Infosys shares dropped 9% to a near six-year low, erasing nearly Rs 40,000 crore in market value. Other IT stocks including TCS and HCLTech also declined sharply.

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BNP Paribas analyst Kumar Rakesh has cautioned investors against viewing largecap Indian IT stocks as a straightforward value play. He points to weak FY27 guidance, AI-led disruptions, and stalled client spending as major challenges. Buybacks and dividends offer some support, but earnings risks remain high.

JPMorgan has downgraded Indian equities to neutral from overweight. The bank warned that the Nifty index could fall to 20,500 in a bear-case scenario, implying a 15% downside from current levels. Near-term risks include elevated valuations and uncertainties from the Iran war and energy disruptions.

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Global fund managers are reconsidering exits from Indian stocks as falling oil prices and rupee stabilization reduce key concerns. Daily foreign selling has slowed while inflows into India-focused ETFs have turned positive. Analysts note that attractive valuations could support a market rerating if earnings growth holds.

 

 

 

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