Valuasi perusahaan TI India anjlok mendekati level krisis subprime

Perusahaan eksportir TI India mengalami penurunan valuasi saham ke level yang terakhir terlihat pada krisis subprime 2008-09. Perusahaan-perusahaan tersebut kini diperdagangkan dengan rasio harga terhadap laba (P/E) di kisaran 15 hingga 18 setelah kehilangan hampir 30 persen nilainya pada tahun 2026. Kemajuan AI dan persaingan baru disebut sebagai pemicu utama penurunan tersebut.

Perusahaan eksportir TI India termasuk Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, dan Wipro telah mengalami penurunan tajam dalam nilai pasar. Valuasi mereka kini mendekati level yang tercatat pada periode krisis keuangan 2008-09, dengan saham yang diperdagangkan pada rasio P/E 15-18.

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Illustration depicting panic at Bombay Stock Exchange as markets lose Rs 20 lakh crore amid crude oil surge to $100 from Iran conflict, with falling charts and rupee.
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Indian markets lose Rs 20 lakh crore on crude oil surge

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Crude oil prices surpassing $100 have erased Rs 20 lakh crore from Indian equity markets this week, amid escalating Iran conflict. The rupee hit a record low as foreign institutional investors continued selling, intensifying the downturn. Experts suggest the panic could present long-term buying opportunities.

BNP Paribas analyst Kumar Rakesh has cautioned investors against viewing largecap Indian IT stocks as a straightforward value play. He points to weak FY27 guidance, AI-led disruptions, and stalled client spending as major challenges. Buybacks and dividends offer some support, but earnings risks remain high.

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Indian IT stocks experienced a brief rebound on Wednesday, halting a five-day losing streak. Analysts, however, caution that this uptick may not last, with persistent bearish sentiments in derivatives. The sector has been under pressure in February amid growing concerns over AI's impact on revenues.

Among 68 high-priced stocks trading above Rs 5,000 on the BSE, FY26 has brought more declines than gains amid global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The top six laggards fell 25-40%, while top gainers surged 40-130%. Institutional holdings vary across these stocks.

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Building on earlier concerns over GDP growth projections, the escalating West Asia war is pressuring Indian equity markets and disrupting footwear and textile sectors through supply shortages and cost spikes. Prashant Jain of 3P Investment Managers views the impact as marginal and transient, while industry reports show input costs up 10-50%.

Accenture (NYSE:ACN) is viewed as undervalued following a price drop in early 2026 due to concerns over AI disruption in software and consulting. The company maintains strong liquidity with $9.6 billion in cash against $8.2 billion in debt. Analysts highlight its 8.75% free cash flow yield and 3% dividend as attractive compared to other blue-chip stocks.

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Foreign portfolio investors pulled out a record Rs 1.18 lakh crore in March, driving the Sensex down 2.22% to 71,947.55 and Nifty 2.14% to 22,331.40 on Monday. The rupee breached 95 intra-day before closing at 94.83 against the dollar. Elevated crude prices above $100 per barrel due to the West Asia conflict added pressure.

 

 

 

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