A recent poll shows 15% of Kenyans fear retrenchment in 2026 amid economic pressures and AI adoption. Nearly six in ten companies plan layoffs, highlighting automation's impact. This threatens clerical workers and high-paid managers the most.
As 2026 begins, Kenyan workers are increasingly anxious about job security, with a December 2025 Infotrak poll indicating that 15% fear retrenchment this year. A survey of business leaders reveals nearly six in ten companies planning layoffs, driven by economic pressures and AI adoption.
AI integration is a primary factor. Rather than mass cuts, firms are optimizing workforces by merging roles and using AI for additional tasks like data entry, scheduling, and customer support. Clerical, secretarial, and basic administrative jobs have seen low demand compared to 2024 as agentic AI handles these efficiently.
Skills mismatch exacerbates the issue. The half-life of technical skills has fallen to five years, meaning half of knowledge from 2021 or earlier is likely outdated. A September 2025 recruitment survey found 46% of business leaders citing lack of AI skills as a key reason for targeting employees in downsizing. High-salaried middle managers face higher risks, often replaced by AI-fluent juniors who deliver similar output at lower cost amid cost-cutting efforts.
In Kenya, regulatory and economic strains add pressure. Stricter KRA digital monitoring and new tax measures are pushing SMEs to automate back-office functions for compliance without extra hires. Rising business costs and fears of a 2026 drought are leading companies to halt recruitment and adopt cautious approaches.
To stay employable, experts recommend focusing on measurable results, mastering applied AI tools, honing irreplaceable human skills like empathy and negotiation, and diversifying income through side hustles as a safety net. This shift underscores a performance-driven job market where presence alone no longer suffices.
