MicroStrategy's shares climbed over 1% to $160 on Boxing Day amid a Bitcoin rebound, but face further declines after forming a death cross pattern. The company's enterprise multiple of net asset value has slipped below 1 for the first time, signaling the end of its previous premium. Ongoing Bitcoin weakness and share dilution add to the pressures.
MicroStrategy's stock, ticker MSTR, experienced a modest uptick on December 26, 2025, rising more than 1% to $160, surpassing the month's low of $157. This movement aligned with a tentative recovery in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, analysts point to mounting risks for additional drops.
A key concern is the formation of a death cross on the three-day chart, where the 50-day weighted moving average crossed below the 200-day average. The shares have fallen below critical support at $230, marking the lowest since March, and breached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Projections suggest a potential slide toward the $100 psychological barrier, especially if it dips under the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $126.
Compounding this, MicroStrategy's enterprise value net asset value (mNAV) has turned negative at 0.988, as its enterprise value reached $59 billion against Bitcoin holdings valued at $59.7 billion. The basic market capitalization-based net asset value stands at 0.763, erasing the premium seen earlier in the year. This shift stems partly from Bitcoin's sharp decline from a year-to-date peak of $126,200 to $88,800, eroding the worth of the company's cryptocurrency reserves.
Further dilution looms, with over $11.8 billion left in at-the-market offerings, pushing outstanding shares above 267 million from 93.2 million in 2022. Bitcoin itself shows bearish signals, including a death cross and a bearish pennant on daily charts, potentially targeting $80,000.
These factors indicate sustained downward pressure on MSTR, reflecting broader cryptocurrency market volatility.
