As the 2025 NFL season heads into Week 18, New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has emerged as the clear favorite for MVP honors, leading his team to the AFC East title. Los Angeles Rams veteran Matthew Stafford remains a strong contender with superior passing stats, but recent team struggles have dimmed his chances. Both players will take the field in pivotal games that could influence voters.
The NFL MVP award has historically favored quarterbacks, with 48 recipients at the position since 1957, including the last 12 straight winners. This year's race has narrowed to two primary candidates: Drake Maye of the Patriots and Matthew Stafford of the Rams.
Maye, the third overall pick in the 2024 draft, has transformed New England from back-to-back 4-13 seasons into AFC East champions, their first since 2019. Entering Week 18, he ranks third in the league with 30 touchdown passes and fourth with 4,203 passing yards, a marked improvement from his rookie year. He has also added over 400 rushing yards and four scores on the ground. After a 10-game winning streak, the Patriots stumbled in Week 15 but rebounded with a 380-yard, two-touchdown performance against Baltimore and five touchdowns in a 42-10 rout of the Jets. A win over the Miami Dolphins, coupled with a Broncos loss, would secure the AFC's No. 1 seed. Oddsmakers at DraftKings list Maye as a -295 favorite.
Stafford, at 37, has played every game despite early back issues, topping the NFL with a career-high 42 touchdown passes and trailing league leader Dak Prescott by just 34 yards at 4,448. However, the Rams have lost three of their last five, including back-to-back defeats that ended their NFC West repeat hopes. They now face the 3-13 Arizona Cardinals, with seeding to be determined potentially before kickoff. Stafford sits at +225 odds, buoyed by his elite production but hindered by the team's late fade.
Analyst Scott Erskine notes that while Stafford's numbers are stellar, Maye's narrative of revitalizing a franchise gives him the edge. Other quarterbacks like Prescott (4,482 yards, 30 TDs) and Jared Goff (4,233 yards, 33 TDs) fell short due to playoff misses, leaving the duo to battle for the honor.
