Energy experts warn that Colombia faces a real risk of electrical imbalance due to rising consumption and delays in generation projects. The system shows alert signs after 30 years without blackouts. Diversifying sources and improving transmission are urged to avoid rationing in 2026 and 2027.
Colombia has not experienced blackouts or rationing in 30 years, unlike neighboring countries. However, experts agree that the electrical system shows alert signs due to higher consumption in industries and homes, delays in generation projects, and transmission limitations.
"We are more people and use more appliances; but the supply does not grow at the same rate", explained a Celsia spokesperson. Researcher Camilo Prieto Valderrama from Universidad Javeriana highlights an installed capacity deficit: "There is an installed capacity deficit because several wind projects that were supposed to come online in La Guajira have been suspended or delayed. That represents nearly 1,000 megawatts less energy for the country".
Demand grows in cities and industries, stressing the system during droughts. "When generation does not advance at the same rate, the result is greater pressure on the system and, in the long term, higher tariffs", Prieto added. Carlos Solano from Celsia stresses planning: hydroelectric plants take 5-8 years and thermal ones 3-4 years.
According to XM, only 20% of planned projects are entering operation. There are risks of rationing in 2026-2027 if there is a strong drought, with regulatory uncertainty. In transmission, there are 13 years of national delay and 11 regional; in 2024, 55% of expansions were delayed and 94% of new connections rejected due to capacity shortages.
The National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF) urges an integral energy policy with clear rules for investors. The government must expedite licensing and coordinate with communities. Celsia recommends saving: unplug devices, use LEDs, and review consumption. "Saving energy not only lowers the bill, it also protects water and keeps the system stable", the company emphasizes.
In Valle del Cauca, Celsia's investments ensure quality. Renewables like solar are advancing, but their intermittency requires backup from thermal and reservoir hydroelectric plants.
