Energy Minister Edwin Palma Egea warned of an imminent risk to electricity supply due to the El Niño phenomenon. In a circular sent on May 14, 2026, to the CREG, he called for urgent regulatory adjustments.
The document, identified as circular 40023, highlights a projected firm energy deficit of 1.97 TWh-year for the period December 2025 to November 2026 and 3.9 TWh-year for the following year. This equals the capacity of a plant of about 450 MW operating continuously.
The warning draws on data from the National Dispatch Center and the Mining-Energy Planning Unit. It also cites a projection from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of a 95% probability of El Niño starting in June 2026.
The ministry also noted the scarcity price rising to $1,006.9/kWh in April, influenced by the Middle East conflict that pushed Brent crude near USD $100 per barrel. It requested incentives to broaden participation in the firm energy obligations auction for the 2029-2030 period.
