Middle East escalation deepens economic strain on South Korea

As the U.S.-Israel Operation Epic Fury against Iran's leadership expands—with Iranian retaliation, Hezbollah, and Houthi involvement—the conflict's fallout intensifies for South Korea. Stocks plunged further Wednesday, oil prices rose amid Strait of Hormuz threats, and policymakers urge preparations for prolonged instability, building on prior evacuations and stabilization measures.

The U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury targeting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the conflict now spreading via Iranian strikes on neighbors and proxy actions by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. This builds on initial responses including evacuations of 21,000 nationals and market stabilization efforts (see prior coverage).

South Korea's KOSPI index fell an additional 12.1 percent Wednesday to 5,093.54 after Tuesday's 7.24 percent drop, while the won weakened to 1,476.2 per dollar. As a nation importing 70 percent of its oil from the Middle East—95 percent via the Strait of Hormuz—with reserves covering 208 days, disruptions loom large. Historical conflicts have spiked oil prices, curbed spending, and hammered Asian growth.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens strait transits, and Tehran warns of closure, but U.S. President Donald Trump pledged military escorts for tankers. Brent crude climbed 1.5 percent to $82.61 per barrel Wednesday; Citibank warns oil above $82 could trim 0.45 percentage points from GDP growth.

Compounded by Russia's ongoing Ukraine invasion, Trump's comments add uncertainty: he predicted a 4-5 week conflict and touted U.S. 'virtually unlimited supply' on Truth Social. Officials, businesses, and the National Assembly must coordinate. Urgently, approve a special law by Monday for last year's $350 billion U.S. investment deal, amid Trump tariff threats post-Supreme Court ruling.

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Seoul stocks opened lower on Friday amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran. The benchmark KOSPI fell 191.3 points, or 2.7 percent, to 6,905.59.

South Korean stocks opened at a fresh record high on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, amid Washington and Tehran exchanging peace talk proposals. The benchmark KOSPI surged 2.79% to 6,782.93 at the open. Eased Middle East tensions drove the rally.

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