Middle East escalation deepens economic strain on South Korea

As the U.S.-Israel Operation Epic Fury against Iran's leadership expands—with Iranian retaliation, Hezbollah, and Houthi involvement—the conflict's fallout intensifies for South Korea. Stocks plunged further Wednesday, oil prices rose amid Strait of Hormuz threats, and policymakers urge preparations for prolonged instability, building on prior evacuations and stabilization measures.

The U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury targeting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the conflict now spreading via Iranian strikes on neighbors and proxy actions by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. This builds on initial responses including evacuations of 21,000 nationals and market stabilization efforts (see prior coverage).

South Korea's KOSPI index fell an additional 12.1 percent Wednesday to 5,093.54 after Tuesday's 7.24 percent drop, while the won weakened to 1,476.2 per dollar. As a nation importing 70 percent of its oil from the Middle East—95 percent via the Strait of Hormuz—with reserves covering 208 days, disruptions loom large. Historical conflicts have spiked oil prices, curbed spending, and hammered Asian growth.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens strait transits, and Tehran warns of closure, but U.S. President Donald Trump pledged military escorts for tankers. Brent crude climbed 1.5 percent to $82.61 per barrel Wednesday; Citibank warns oil above $82 could trim 0.45 percentage points from GDP growth.

Compounded by Russia's ongoing Ukraine invasion, Trump's comments add uncertainty: he predicted a 4-5 week conflict and touted U.S. 'virtually unlimited supply' on Truth Social. Officials, businesses, and the National Assembly must coordinate. Urgently, approve a special law by Monday for last year's $350 billion U.S. investment deal, amid Trump tariff threats post-Supreme Court ruling.

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South Korean stocks fell Friday morning after Iran's new leader vowed to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing global crude prices to fluctuate around the $100 level. The KOSPI index dropped sharply at the open but trimmed losses later while staying in negative territory. Disruptions at the key Middle East waterway persist despite U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that the war is nearing an end.

Korean stocks closed lower on Thursday amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which caused volatility in global oil prices. The KOSPI index fell 0.48 percent to 5,583.25, while the won weakened sharply to 1,481.2 against the U.S. dollar, down 14.7 won. Despite the International Energy Agency's plan to release oil reserves, investors remained cautious over fears of a prolonged conflict.

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Seoul stocks opened higher Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at a possible end to the monthlong war with Iran. The benchmark KOSPI rose 1.15 percent to 5,541.81 in early trading. Global markets rallied similarly on de-escalation hopes.

South Korean stocks opened sharply lower on Monday amid rising concerns over a broader Middle East conflict after Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen fired missiles at Israel. The benchmark KOSPI fell 240.94 points, or 4.43 percent, to 5,197.93 in the first 15 minutes of trading. Global oil prices climbed while U.S. troop deployments heightened fears.

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South Korean stocks opened sharply higher on Wednesday amid hopes for an end to the monthlong Middle East war. The KOSPI benchmark surged 5.49% to 5,330.04 at open, reaching 5,299.02, up 4.88%, after 15 minutes. U.S. President Donald Trump's comments on ending the Iran operation fueled the rally.

South Korean stocks opened slightly lower on Friday amid persistent Middle East tensions and little progress in US-Iran peace talks. The KOSPI fell 7.21 points, or 0.11 percent, to 6,468.60 in the first 15 minutes of trading. The decline followed overnight Wall Street losses as investors stayed on the sidelines.

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Following the early March escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, South Africa's financial markets continue to reel, with 10-year bond yields hitting 9.5% and the JSE All Share Index down 20% this month. US President Donald Trump's announcement of productive talks with Iran on 23 March 2026, postponing strikes, provided brief relief, but oil shocks persist, heightening stagflation risks for emerging markets like South Africa.

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