Argentina's Country Risk index saw a slight drop of 4 basis points on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, closing at 614 points. This moderate decline occurs amid optimism from trade agreements with the United States and currency stabilization. The JP Morgan-measured indicator signals growing investor confidence in the country's payment capacity.
The Country Risk index, a key metric developed by U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan as part of the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), measures the premium Argentina pays on its debt compared to U.S. Treasury bonds, deemed risk-free. This financial thermometer closed on November 18, 2025, at 614 basis points, following a -0.65% variation from 618 points the previous day. The slight drop came amid a session where dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, such as Globals and Bonars, averaged losses of 0.3%.
Over the past week, the indicator showed volatility. On Monday, November 10, it broke below the 600-point barrier, its lowest since January, driven by expectations of a trade deal with the United States. However, on Monday, November 17, it rose to 618 points awaiting details on that agreement and international corporate earnings, fostering market caution.
Stability near 600 points stems from several factors: reduced short-term default risk, particularly with January maturities; potential government debt buybacks to support bond prices; and currency calm. Additionally, the recent announcement of a bilateral cooperation agreement on trade and investments with the U.S. fuels moderate optimism. Yet, weakness in global markets, volatility in tech stocks, and the Central Bank's need to rebuild reserves sustain caution, preventing sharper declines.
The Country Risk is vital for Argentina, as high levels raise external financing costs, impact credit for businesses and the state, and deter investments. A sustained reduction is essential for economic reactivation and macroeconomic stabilization.