Two experts debate whether the UN's Conferences of the Parties (COPs) on climate change have achieved their goals, ahead of COP30 in Belém. One argues for significant progress, while the other criticizes unfulfilled promises. The conference starts on November 10, 2025, in the heart of the Amazon.
The COPs, started in 1995 in Berlin, mark 30 years since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force. COP30, scheduled for Belém from November 10, 2025, reignites debate on their effectiveness. Thelma Krug, president of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and former IPCC vice-president, argues that "there have been significant advances in these 30 years." Without negotiations, she states, "the planet would today be in a much more fragile situation, with extreme events even more frequent and intense." She highlights that the 196 nations have equal voice and submit greenhouse gas inventories annually (developed countries) or biennially (developing ones), based on IPCC methodologies.
Krug points to milestones like COP3 in 1997, which created the Kyoto Protocol, the first binding treaty for reductions in developed countries, though the US signed but did not ratify it. The protocol introduced the carbon market and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), enabling investments in clean projects in developing nations. Ending in 2020, it led to the 2015 Paris Agreement, with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years. Without these efforts, she warns, global warming could reach 4°C by century's end.
Conversely, environmental lawyer Ricardo de Almeida, with a master's and PhD from PUC-SP, views the COPs as "a letter of intent that was never fulfilled." He criticizes that promises of reductions by pre-1990 major emitters did not materialize, with the US, the largest polluter, repeatedly withdrawing. The CDM and carbon credit market, established in Kyoto, failed to deliver effective financial support to developing countries. COP26 in Glasgow (2021) ratified Paris, but advances are "timid and far from effective." Almeida notes the US and China as passive, and criticizes Brazil as a villain despite its forests and clean energy, citing Donald Trump's accusations of Amazon fires to justify tariffs. For him, without financial incentives, environmental preservation remains a distant ideal.
Both agree the COPs provide a unique forum, but differ on outcomes, underscoring challenges for COP30.