Nearly a month after the United States signed a memorandum of understanding tied to a ceasefire with Iran, renewed fighting has raised concerns the conflict could become a drawn-out quagmire, Swarthmore College political scientist Dominic Tierney said in an NPR interview.
Iran struck ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump then declared the ceasefire over and ordered U.S. strikes on targets across Iran, according to NPR host Scott Simon. The renewed clashes come almost a month after what NPR described as a memorandum of understanding intended to halt the fighting.
Dominic Tierney, chair of political science at Swarthmore College, said the conflict appears to fit a familiar pattern for the United States.
“The United States is stuck in a difficult military campaign that it cannot extricate itself from,” Tierney said.
Tierney argued that U.S. leaders overestimated their ability to achieve key objectives quickly, including damaging Iran’s nuclear program and triggering a popular uprising against Tehran. He said both sides have paid a heavy price and cited casualties among U.S. forces.
According to Tierney, 13 Americans have been killed and many more wounded, and several U.S. bases have been hit. He also said Iran has suffered significant losses in military capability.
Tierney added that Iran “did just bury one supreme leader,” and said the funeral appeared to show broad public backing for the government. In his assessment, the Iranian regime is arguably in a stronger position than when the war began.
Tierney said the war has not met the goals Trump and other U.S. officials initially set out, which he described as confusing and sometimes contradictory. He cautioned that any diplomatic exit is unlikely to come quickly, pointing to past U.S. experiences in Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan, where negotiations took years.
