Middle East tensions set to push oil prices higher: Mantashe

Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe says evolving tensions in the Middle East are negatively impacting global oil prices. Oil prices are expected to rise sharply next month due to the regional conflict. He made these remarks in his keynote address at the 5th annual Southern Africa Oil and Gas Conference in Cape Town.

Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe warned of the impact from Israel and America’s war against Iran on oil prices during the conference in Cape Town. He stated the conflict has caused massive shocks to the oil price and could lead to higher prices if Iran closes the route. “If Iran closes the route and no oil can pass through, then we must prepare for higher oil prices. What will help us is understanding that the conflict in the Middle East is affecting the world’s markets, not just us. The question then is: when fuel prices increase substantially, what are we going to do?” he added. The event gathers upstream oil and gas industry stakeholders to identify strategies for accelerating development of existing discoveries and further exploration. Mantashe highlighted South Africa’s significant offshore petroleum potential, including major gas discoveries, hindered by environmental protection protests. “The persistent opposition from the environmental lobby is quite clearly a liability for us in South Africa. We have potential to exploit oil and gas but for every oil and gas project we end up in court. So, it is important for the industry to understand that and work with us on that,” he said. Department Director-General Jacob Mbele discussed a framework to boost petroleum refinery capacity, which could shield the economy from sharp oil price rises. “In the oil price situation, we have been actively engaging with this work. The feedback we received was that there was no need at the time, but this crisis has made all of us realize that what we wanted to do back then is even more necessary now, and we need to move with greater speed,” Mbele said. The department is reforming its legislative framework to advance the petroleum sector.

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Dramatic photo illustration of blocked Strait of Hormuz oil tankers, Iran-launched missiles striking Israel, and surging oil prices amid war escalation.
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Iran-Israel war escalates with Strait of Hormuz closure

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The ongoing war between Iran and Israel has intensified, with missile exchanges and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting global oil supplies. Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, fueling market declines and inflation fears worldwide. Governments are responding with measures to stabilize energy markets amid concerns over prolonged conflict.

At the Southern Africa Oil and Gas Conference in Cape Town, Minister Gwede Mantashe urged harnessing South Africa's oil and gas resources amid disruptions from the US-Israeli war on Iran. He stressed legislative urgency to avoid litigation delays. Industry leaders echoed calls for diversified energy portfolios.

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South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has warned that the war in the Middle East will lead to higher fuel and food prices due to rising oil and fertiliser costs. He made the comments while attending the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC. The impacts are expected to filter through the economy later this year.

The ongoing conflict with Iran has halted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global oil and gas prices. This surge is providing short-term gains for producers outside the Persian Gulf region, such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Consumers in the US and Europe are facing higher bills as a result.

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In response to diesel shortages triggered by Middle East conflicts including recent attacks on Iran, South Africa's Department of Mineral Resources and Petroleum has begun a comprehensive review of the fuel pricing mechanism. Reforms to industry margins are targeted for March 2027, with a temporary R3 per litre fuel levy cut providing short-term relief amid rising global oil prices.

The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, started on February 28, 2026, has driven oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel, closing the Strait of Hormuz and creating volatility in global markets. In Mexico, this could mean additional oil revenues of 406 billion pesos if the average price holds at 90 dollars for the year. However, the conflict has also depreciated the Mexican peso and accelerated inflation to 4.02 percent in February.

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Following the early March escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, South Africa's financial markets continue to reel, with 10-year bond yields hitting 9.5% and the JSE All Share Index down 20% this month. US President Donald Trump's announcement of productive talks with Iran on 23 March 2026, postponing strikes, provided brief relief, but oil shocks persist, heightening stagflation risks for emerging markets like South Africa.

 

 

 

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