As the 2026 NFL playoffs begin with Wild Card Weekend, projection models have outlined the most favorable routes for each AFC and NFC team to reach Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara on February 8. The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks lead as top seeds with strong simulation odds, while underdogs like the Houston Texans emerge as dark horses based on championship trends. Analysts highlight quarterback performances and matchup advantages as key factors in the wide-open tournament.
The NFL's 2025 regular season concluded with a reshuffled playoff field, marking the first time in years without the Kansas City Chiefs, who finished 6-11 and missed the postseason. In the AFC, the Denver Broncos (14-3) earned the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, positioned as favorites at +650 odds on DraftKings. Wild Card matchups include the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) hosting the Buffalo Bills (12-5) on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) visiting the New England Patriots (14-3) at 8 p.m. ET, and the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) hosting the Houston Texans (12-5) on Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET.
A SportsLine projection model, simulating games 10,000 times, gives Denver a 16.2% chance to win the Super Bowl, second to the NFC's Seattle Seahawks at 22.3%. For the Broncos, the ideal path involves an upset by the Chargers over the Patriots, as Denver holds a 65.1% win probability against Los Angeles. The model warns of tough Super Bowl matchups against Seattle (42.5% win chance), Philadelphia Eagles (46.7%), and Los Angeles Rams (47.2%).
In the NFC, the Seahawks (top seed) enjoy a bye and at least 50.9% win odds against all playoff teams. Their optimal route includes a Panthers upset over the Rams, boosting Seattle's chances to 74.4% against Carolina. The model favors rooting for Carolina across most NFC paths to avoid stronger foes like the Rams, who have a 43.6% chance to beat Seattle.
Quarterback rankings underscore the stakes: Matthew Stafford tops the list for the Rams with 46 passing touchdowns and a playoff heater, while Drake Maye leads for the Patriots with a 72% completion rate. Josh Allen of the Bills faces road win pressure, 0-4 in playoff starts away. Championship trends from CBS Sports eliminate 12 teams, leaving the Texans as survivors due to their elite defense despite offensive line woes. Pundits like Austin Mock praise the Chargers' Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh for close-game prowess, noting their 6-2 record in one-score contests.
This postseason promises unpredictability, with no dominant force and multiple teams capable of deep runs if key matchups align.
