The New England Patriots, fresh off a 14-3 regular season, will host the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC wild card playoff game on Sunday night. Quarterbacks Drake Maye and Justin Herbert lead their teams into Gillette Stadium, where weather conditions could play a key role. The Patriots enter as 3.5-point favorites with an over/under of 45.5 points.
The seventh-seeded Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) face the second-seeded New England Patriots (14-3) in a 2026 NFL wild card matchup on 'Sunday Night Football.' Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, broadcast on NBC. The Patriots won the AFC East and finished with a 6-3 home record, while the Chargers placed second in the AFC West and went 5-3 on the road. New England comes off a 38-10 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18, whereas Los Angeles fell 19-3 at Denver.
Drake Maye, the Patriots' second-year quarterback and third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, has had an MVP-caliber season. In 17 games, he completed 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, earning a 113.5 passer rating. Maye also rushed for 450 yards and four scores. His top target, Stefon Diggs, recorded 85 receptions for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns. The Patriots' rushing attack, led by rookie TreVeyon Henderson and veteran Rhamondre Stevenson (combined 1,514 yards and 16 touchdowns), ranked sixth in the NFL.
For the Chargers, Justin Herbert completed 66.4% of his passes for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 16 games, with a 94.1 rating. He added 498 rushing yards and two scores. Wide receiver Ladd McConkey caught 66 passes for 789 yards and six touchdowns. Running back Omarion Hampton (ankle) is active after missing Week 18, bolstering a ground game hampered by injuries to Najee Harris and others. Kimani Vidal led Chargers rushers with 643 yards.
The all-time series favors New England 27-17-2, including a 3-1 postseason edge. Betting odds list the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -198, Chargers at +164, and over/under at 45.5. Weather forecasts predict temperatures around freezing with winds of 20-23 mph, potentially favoring New England's run-heavy offense. The SportsLine Projection Model simulates an over of 48 points and projects the Patriots covering in over 50% of 10,000 runs. Both teams seek their first playoff win since 2018.
New England has strengthened its lines recently, with left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams returning in Week 18. The Chargers allowed a franchise-high 60 sacks, ranking fifth-most ever for a playoff team, despite missing tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. This matchup pits two young star quarterbacks against stout defenses, with Maye's deep ball tested by Los Angeles' secondary and Herbert's protection challenged by New England's pass rush.
