The 2025-26 college basketball season has brought unexpected struggles for several preseason contenders, raising doubts about their NCAA tournament hopes. An analysis rates panic levels from 1 to 5 for teams like Florida and St. John's, highlighting issues in key matchups and defensive play. While recovery remains possible, some squads teeter on the bubble as conference schedules loom.
The defending champions from Florida have stumbled against ranked foes, losing to all three they faced plus a neutral-site defeat to TCU on Thanksgiving. Despite wins over Florida State, Miami, and Providence, the Gators lack dominance, earning a panic rating of 4. Guard Xaivian Lee's recent contributions offer hope, but the team must improve execution in the SEC, which appears less top-heavy this year.
St. John's, starting ranked No. 6, has fallen out of the coaches poll with a 7-4 record. Losses to Alabama, a 1-2 finish in the Players Era Festival, and a poor showing against Kentucky underscore guard play problems. Rated at 5 for panic, they hold just one Quad 1 victory against four losses, needing a strong Big East run to secure a top-four seed.
Kentucky endured boos from fans after a 5-4 start, capped by a Gonzaga blowout, but rebounded with wins over Indiana and St. John's for a three-game streak. Their 1-4 Quad 1 mark prompts a rating of 4, though Jayden Quaintance's injury recovery and a favorable early SEC slate provide optimism.
UCLA, bolstered by Donovan Dent, sits at 9 wins but with unconvincing performances, including losses to Arizona and Gonzaga, and a flat effort versus California. Mick Cronin's defense falters, yielding a 1-4 Quad 1 record and a panic score of 5, placing them on the tournament bubble.
Arkansas under John Calipari shows promise through freshman Darius Acuff Jr., holding ground in losses to Michigan State, Duke, and Houston, plus a solid win over Louisville. A 2-3 Quad 1 start earns a low rating of 2, suggesting potential for a second-weekend NCAA appearance.
Alabama's potent offense secured victories over St. John's and Illinois amid a tough slate, despite blowouts to Gonzaga and Arizona. Rated at 1, they eye SEC dominance with manageable Quad 1 chances ahead.
Illinois, after a 4-0 start, went 4-3 with losses to Alabama, Connecticut, and Nebraska, but beat Texas Tech and Tennessee. Defense will decide their fate, warranting a rating of 2.
Tennessee's three-game skid followed a Houston triumph, with defeats to Kansas, Syracuse, and Illinois, before dominating Louisville. Overreliance on Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament yields a 3 rating.
Auburn, led by new coach Steven Pearl, faltered against elite teams like Michigan, Arizona, and Purdue, averaging 29-point losses, with Tahaad Pettiford now injured. A No. 43 NET ranking and sole quality win over St. John's result in a 5.
NC State, with Will Wade, managed 5-4 after an initial 4-0 run, but poor showings against Texas and Seton Hall, plus losses to Auburn and Kansas, limit them to a Boise State win. A 3-4 Quad 1/2 record and Wade's frustrations prompt a 4 rating.
