Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola endured a challenging 2025 season marked by injuries and poor performance, but he is fully recovered and poised for a potential bounce-back in 2026. With uncertainties surrounding key teammates like Zack Wheeler and the departure of Ranger Suárez, Nola's resurgence could stabilize the team's pitching staff. Analysts highlight four key areas for improvement to help him regain his All-Star form.
The Philadelphia Phillies' starting rotation has been a cornerstone of their success in recent years, yet the outlook for 2026 remains uncertain. Ace Zack Wheeler underwent thoracic outlet decompression surgery in September 2025 and may not be ready for Opening Day. Left-hander Ranger Suárez has signed with the Boston Red Sox, leaving Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo to shoulder significant loads. In this context, veteran right-hander Aaron Nola's performance becomes crucial.
Nola's 2025 campaign was his worst, as he missed nearly half the season due to injury and posted a career-high 6.01 ERA over 17 starts. He landed on the injured list on May 15 with a right ankle sprain, which led to a stress fracture in his right rib during rehabilitation. Returning on August 17 after more than three months, Nola struggled both before (6.16 ERA) and after (5.84 ERA) the stint. This marked a sharp decline from his first 10 seasons, where he averaged 3.6 Baseball-Reference WAR annually, compared to -0.3 in 2025. His prior non-COVID IL placement was in early 2017, underscoring his usual durability with 268 starts from 2015 to 2024, the fourth-most among pitchers.
To rebound at age 33, Nola must address specific weaknesses. First, staying healthy is paramount, given his strong track record. Second, fixing his four-seam fastball is essential; it dropped to -2 run value in 2025 from +9 in 2024, with velocity falling to 91.9 mph from 92.5 mph, batting average against rising to .230 from .167, and whiff rate halving to 13.9%. Batters hit it harder, at 91.1 mph exit velocity versus 89.8 mph.
Third, inducing more ground balls could curb his homer tendency—18 allowed in 94 1/3 innings (1.72 per nine, 10th-highest among qualifiers)—as his ground-ball rate dipped to 42.9%, second-lowest in his career. His pulled air-ball rate hit a career-high 22.9% (87th percentile). Finally, limiting hard contact is vital; 2025 saw career-worsts in barrel rate (9.1%), average exit velocity (89.4 mph), and hard-hit rate (43.3%), despite a strong 33.5% chase rate (93rd percentile).
Improving these areas, particularly with his four-seamer and cutter, could enable deeper outings and lower his ERA, providing the Phillies the stability they need.
