The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has projected that two to eight tropical cyclones may develop or enter the country from January to June 2026. The forecast indicates relatively low cyclone activity in the first half of the year. This was presented by Ana Liza Solis during the 191st climate forum on Thursday.
On Thursday, PAGASA provided an outlook on potential tropical cyclone activity for the first six months of 2026. According to Ana Liza Solis, from January to April, zero to one cyclone is forecast each month. Activity is expected to increase slightly in May and June, with one to two cyclones likely to develop or enter the Philippine area of responsibility during those months.
Beyond cyclones, PAGASA's temperature outlook points to near-normal to above-normal mean temperatures across most parts of the country. Some areas may experience cooler-than-average conditions early in the year, followed by a gradual warming trend beginning in March. Above-normal temperatures are expected to prevail in April and May and generally persist through June.
Rainfall forecasts indicate above-normal to near-normal rainfall in January across most regions, except in western Luzon, where below-normal rainfall is expected. From February to April, near-normal rainfall is projected over most of the Visayas and Mindanao, with above-normal rainfall in eastern Mindanao and below-normal conditions in northern and western Luzon. May is expected to bring near-normal rainfall nationwide, while June will likely maintain near-normal conditions with some regional variations.
On the climate front, PAGASA noted that a short-lived and weak La Niña is currently present in the tropical Pacific. It is expected to persist into early 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely between January and March.
