The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar weakened by 28 points or 0.17 percent to Rp16,847 per dollar at the opening of trading in Jakarta on Monday (January 12, 2026). Analysts predict further fluctuations, with one side seeing potential strengthening due to the investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while others warn of ongoing weakening due to global geopolitics.
At the opening of trading in Jakarta on Monday (January 12, 2026), the rupiah moved weaker by 28 points or 0.17 percent to Rp16,847 per US dollar from the previous level of Rp16,819 per dollar. Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) recorded the rupiah at Rp16,834 per dollar on Friday (January 9, 2026), down 33 points from Rp16,801 on Thursday (January 8, 2026).
Currency analyst from Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, predicts the rupiah could strengthen as the US government opens a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He stated, "Trump opens a criminal investigation into Powell. This caused the US dollar index to drop sharply, so the rupiah has potential to strengthen." The Federal Reserve confirmed on Sunday (January 11, 2026) that US federal prosecutors are investigating Powell over a multi-billion dollar headquarters renovation project. Powell said the Department of Justice sent a subpoena on Friday (January 9, 2026), threatening criminal charges related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June. He described the action as an intervention into the central bank's independence.
Lukman added that the market reaction is significant but may be temporary, leaving the rupiah volatile. On the other hand, economist Ibrahim Assuaibi forecasts the rupiah weakening toward Rp16,900 next week and potentially reaching Rp17,000 in the first quarter of 2026 due to global geopolitical turmoil and economic pressures. "Thus, market players need to be vigilant against exchange rate volatility in the near term," he said. However, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves are increasing, indicating Bank Indonesia is not aggressive in interventions.
US economic data shows 50,000 jobs added in December 2025 (below expectations of 60,000), unemployment falling to 4.4 percent (from a forecast of 4.5 percent), building permits rising to 1.41 million (from 1.35 million), and consumer confidence at 54 (from 53.5). These differing perspectives highlight the uncertainties affecting currency markets.
