US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on any country doing business with Iran, similar to the Russia case. This could further impact India, where a 50% tariff is already in place. Experts suggest it may affect India-Iran trade and regional connectivity.
On January 13, 2026, Donald Trump announced via a post on the social media platform Truth Social that the United States will impose an immediate 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran. Trump stated, 'Any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will have to pay an immediate 25% tariff on all trade with the United States, and this order is final.'
This move echoes the 25% extra tariff imposed on countries trading with Russia. For India, the tariff related to purchases of Russian oil and weapons has already been raised from 25% to 50%. The new warning on Iran has sparked speculation that tariffs on India could rise to 75%. However, India has not imported oil from Iran since 2019 due to US sanctions, though other trade continues.
According to commerce department data, bilateral trade between India and Iran reached approximately 1.68 billion USD in FY2024-25, with India's exports at 1.24 billion USD and imports at 0.44 billion USD, resulting in a trade surplus of 0.80 billion USD. India exports rice, tea, sugar, medicines, artificial fiber, electrical machinery, and artificial jewelry to Iran, while imports include dry fruits, inorganic/organic chemicals, and glassware.
The warning could disrupt operations at Chabahar Port and the INSTC trade corridor. Iran's economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas, with major partners including China (70-80% of oil exports), Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Turkey. This raises fears of a global trade war, particularly straining US-China relations.
