Global leaders are convening in Belém, Brazil, for COP30, the 30th United Nations climate summit, amid challenges to the Paris Agreement a decade after its ratification. With the United States absent from high-level participation and developing nations pressing for aid, the conference will address finance, adaptation, fossil fuels, Indigenous rights, and the COP process itself. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has called for a shift from negotiation to implementation.
COP30 begins next week in Belém, northern Brazil, marking the first time the UN climate summit is held in the Amazon. It comes 10 years after the Paris Agreement's ratification, which aims to limit warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius. However, roughly 100 countries have not strengthened their climate pledges since last year's conference, putting the world on track for 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100. The United States, the second-largest emitter, is not sending high-level officials, as President Donald Trump has dismissed global warming as the world's 'greatest con job.' Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, noted at a recent press conference, 'the entire Paris Agreement experiment is being challenged.' Yet, optimism persists: renewable energy, led by solar, outpowered coal for the first time in the first six months of 2025.
Brazil, under President Lula, hosts the summit after emissions fell nearly 17 percent last year—the biggest drop in 15 years—due to crackdowns on illegal deforestation. This contrasts with former President Jair Bolsonaro's era, when Amazon deforestation hit records; he was recently sentenced to 27 years for a coup attempt. Lula has promised to end deforestation by decade's end but last month approved exploratory oil drilling near the Amazon River's mouth to fund climate commitments.
Five issues will shape COP30's outcomes. First, climate finance: The Paris Agreement targeted $100 billion annually by 2020 from rich nations, but much came as high-interest loans. At COP29, a $300 billion minimum by 2035 was set, aiming for $1.3 trillion total. The Baku to Belém roadmap proposes carbon pricing and taxes on aviation and luxury goods. U.N. economists warn that 'climate impacts are being felt by society, but the benefits of solutions to the climate crises are not trickling down to the poor and vulnerable.'
Second, adaptation: Negotiators will finalize 100 indicators from nearly 10,000 to measure progress on resilience in water, ecosystems, health, and infrastructure. The adaptation finance gap for developing countries is $284 billion to $339 billion yearly, with only 19 percent of multilateral funds for adaptation versus 64 percent for mitigation.
Third, fossil fuel commitments: The COP28 pledge to 'transition away from fossil fuels' faces backsliding risks, especially with U.S. pressures. Harjeet Singh of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation said, 'We are already seeing signs that some governments and oil-producing nations are seeking to dilute, delay, or reinterpret' it. Brazil plans no main cover decision this year.
Fourth, Indigenous rights: With 1.5 million Indigenous people in the Amazon, Brazil aims to accredit 1,000 representatives and support Indigenous-language broadcasts. Juan Carlos Jintiach of the Global Alliance of Territorial Communities stated, 'We as Indigenous people from the rainforest... want to present solutions.' Big Wind Carpenter of the Northern Arapaho added, 'We can’t solve the climate crisis without Indigenous Peoples’ leadership... our rights must be non-negotiable.' Leaders seek territorial protections and direct financing, bolstered by a recent International Court of Justice opinion on state obligations.
Finally, the COP process: Multilateralism strains under U.S. withdrawal and global rightward shifts. Kaveh Guilanpour, a former negotiator, urged, 'COP30 must demonstrate... that the Paris Agreement is alive, well, and relevant.' Lula called this the 'COP of truth,' echoing his September New York statement: 'The time has come to move from negotiation to implementation.'