New cancer diagnoses worldwide more than doubled from 1990 to 2023, reaching an estimated 18.5 million cases, while annual deaths rose to about 10.4 million, according to a Global Burden of Disease analysis published in The Lancet. The researchers project cancer diagnoses will rise to about 30.5 million a year by 2050, largely driven by population growth and aging, and estimate that roughly four in 10 cancer deaths in 2023 were linked to preventable risk factors such as tobacco use, unhealthy diets and high blood sugar.
The global burden of cancer has increased sharply over the past three decades. A systematic analysis produced for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2023 and published in The Lancet estimated that, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18.5 million new cancer cases worldwide in 2023 and 10.4 million cancer deaths.
The same analysis found that cancer deaths have risen substantially since 1990. Between 1990 and 2023, overall global cancer deaths increased by 74.3%, the study reported.
A large share of cancer mortality was tied to risks that researchers said are modifiable. The study estimated that 4.33 million cancer deaths in 2023—41.7% of all cancer deaths—were attributable to risk factors included in the analysis, spanning behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks.
Tobacco use accounted for the largest single share of cancer deaths globally in 2023, the researchers reported, contributing about 21%. Tobacco was the leading risk factor in every World Bank income group except low-income countries, where unsafe sex was the top risk factor and was linked to 12.5% of cancer deaths.
The study also described widening pressure on health systems in lower-resource settings. In 2023, the authors estimated that 57.9% of incident cancer cases and 65.8% of cancer deaths occurred in low-income through upper-middle-income countries, based on World Bank income-group classifications.
Looking ahead, the researchers’ reference forecast estimated that, by 2050, there will be 30.5 million new cancer cases and 18.6 million cancer deaths worldwide—an increase of 60.7% in cases and 74.5% in deaths from 2024 levels. The authors said most of the increase is likely to be driven by demographic change, including population growth and aging.
In terms of specific cancers, the analysis found breast cancer was the most commonly diagnosed cancer globally in 2023, while tracheal, bronchus and lung cancers remained the leading cause of cancer deaths.
Lisa M. Force of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the paper’s corresponding author, said the estimates and forecasts are intended to support governments and health systems in planning cancer control. Co-author Theo Vos pointed to prevention opportunities tied to known risk factors.
The paper also flagged persistent data gaps, particularly in resource-limited settings, and said the decline in age-standardized cancer mortality—while encouraging—was not enough to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal target of reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by one-third by 2030.
