BBVA México lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.2 percent, yet noted that strong performance by the Mexican national team at the World Cup could provide an extra lift.
The bank presented its Mexico Situation Report, in which chief economist Carlos Serrano explained that the tournament’s impact would depend on how many matches the team plays. Reaching the fifth match could translate into greater economic dynamism.
According to BBVA estimates, the World Cup would add roughly 0.3 percentage points to growth. Without that effect, GDP expansion would be only 0.9 percent. Serrano said the downward revision stems mainly from slowing consumption and investment.
The report also addressed the exchange rate. BBVA expects a gradual and moderate peso depreciation, projecting a year-end level of 17.80 pesos per dollar. It further warned about shrinking fiscal space and the risk that public debt could reach 60 percent of GDP by 2030.
