The Horn of Africa, encompassing Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea, serves as a strategic hub along the vital trade route connecting the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean, positioned directly across the Red Sea from the Middle East. The United Arab Emirates has established a prominent, though controversial, footprint in eastern Africa, including documented support for Sudan's Rapid Support Forces paramilitaries, despite official denials. This rivalry is sparking new alliances, with Somalia recently terminating all agreements with the UAE.
The Horn of Africa occupies a pivotal position on one of the world's busiest trade corridors, linking the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean and situated just across the Red Sea from the Middle East. This region, which includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea, has drawn intense interest from Gulf states seeking to expand their influence. The United Arab Emirates maintains the most conspicuous presence in eastern Africa, with widely reported backing for Sudan's Rapid Support Forces paramilitaries, though the UAE officially rejects these claims.
Intensifying competition among these powers is reshaping regional ties. Whispers of a prospective military pact between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Somalia aim to offset Emirati sway. In a concrete move, Somalia severed all prior pacts with the UAE just last month. Ethiopia, home to around 130 million people and Africa's second-most populous nation, finds itself increasingly entangled in these geopolitical maneuvers.
Ethiopian researcher Biraanu Gammachu highlights the imbalance at play. “It’s an asymmetric relation between emerging middle power countries and donor-dependent states… The Gulf countries’ influence in the Red Sea sustains the instability in the region,” he observed. Such dynamics underscore how wealthy Gulf monarchies exert significant leverage over economically vulnerable east African nations, potentially exacerbating local conflicts.