Following its 2025 results showing a 45.4% profit drop due to agribusiness delinquency, Banco do Brasil executives at the BB Day event forecast a 'W'-shaped recovery for the sector in 2026. The payments index is expected to reach 95%, with delinquency pressuring results into mid-year amid risks like Middle East tensions and El Niño. The bank will maintain risk-calibrated lending with stronger guarantees.
Building on February's 2025 results announcement—which revealed a 45.4% adjusted net profit decline to R$20.7 billion amid rising agribusiness delinquency—Banco do Brasil executives shared detailed 2026 prospects at the BB Day investor event.
Agribusiness vice-president Gilson Bittencourt highlighted a gradual recovery, noting new operations backed by real estate and fiduciary liens represent just 20% of custeio receipts. The payments index is projected at 95% for 2026, up from 92% in 2025 (and 99% in 2023), with R$155.6 billion in maturities including R$87.8 billion in custeio.
Risks vice-president Felipe Prince pointed to the Middle East war inflating input costs like urea by up to 80%, impacting the 2026/2027 crop, while El Niño could cause heavy South region rains and Amazon drought. Bittencourt added: "Brazil should not face generalized margin pressure. Our goal is to return to delinquency near 1%."
Finance director Geovanne Tobias anticipates a "W"-shaped recovery with oscillations into the first semester, improving later. CEO Tarciana Medeiros emphasized credit quality: "It's not just volume, it's prudent growth." Separately, the bank targets 20% market share in private payroll loans, up from 13%.
