Illustration of imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro announcing son Flávio as 2026 presidential candidate from Brasília prison cell.
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Bolsonaro chooses Flávio as 2026 presidential candidate

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Former President Jair Bolsonaro, imprisoned in Brasília, announced on Friday (December 5) that his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, will be the bolsonarismo candidate for the Presidency in 2026. The decision aims to continue the family's political project and may boost agendas like amnesty for those convicted in the January 8 acts. Reactions range from family support to centrão criticism for prioritizing family survival over a broader right-wing front.

Jair Bolsonaro, serving a 27-year and three-month sentence at the Federal Police Superintendency in Brasília for leading a coup attempt after the 2022 elections, confirmed to allies and his son the choice of Flávio as successor in the 2026 presidential race. Flávio, in a social media message, stated he receives the indication with “great responsibility” and highlighted his father as “the greatest political and moral leadership in Brazil”, promising continuity to the “nation project”.

The decision marks the first time Bolsonaro openly declares launching a family member for the Palácio do Planalto while imprisoned. In the PL, internal evaluations see the senator strengthening the party's position with nationwide travels and alliances, including governors like Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) and Cláudio Castro (PL-RJ). Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) interpreted the choice as a gesture of “national pacification” and opportunity to advance amnesty for supporters arrested after the January 8 antidemocratic acts.

Family reactions were positive: Michelle Bolsonaro posted a religious blessing, wishing “wisdom, strength, and grace” to Flávio, while Eduardo Bolsonaro expressed “profound admiration” and stated his brother will raise “the flag of our father's ideals”. However, the centrão criticizes the move as isolating Flávio, predicting parties like PP, União Brasil, and Republicanos will maintain their own projects, seeing prioritization of the family over right-wing unity against Lula.

Ronaldo Caiado (União-GO) respected the choice but maintained his pre-candidacy, stating: “I remain pre-candidate for president and am convinced that next year we will remove the PT from power”. An AtlasIntel poll showed Flávio with 23.1% against Lula's 47.3%, indicating challenges ahead.

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Initial reactions on X are divided: core bolsonaristas like deputies Mario Frias and Nikolas Ferreira express strong support, viewing it as loyalty to Bolsonaro and a path to amnesty; centrão critics and MBL figures decry dynastic politics and Flávio's scandals, preferring alternatives like Tarcísio; markets note sharp drops amid skepticism.

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Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at podium with father Jair Bolsonaro's support, announced as 2026 presidential candidate; inset of Javier Milei endorsing.
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Flávio Bolsonaro chosen as presidential candidate for 2026

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Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) announced on Friday (5) that he was chosen by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, as the presidential candidate in 2026. The decision strengthens the family's influence in the Bolsonarista camp and draws reactions from the PT, which sees benefits for Lula. On Saturday (6), Argentine President Javier Milei expressed support for the pre-candidacy.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro stated he will only withdraw his pre-candidacy for the 2026 presidency if former President Jair Bolsonaro is released and can run in the elections. In an interview with Record, he described the 'price' as justice for his father and supporters, while praising the positive reaction from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas to the news. The statement comes amid polls showing low initial support for his candidacy.

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A Genial/Quaest poll released on Sunday shows that 49% of voters believe Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will take his pre-candidacy for the presidency to the end. Belief is higher among Bolsonaro supporters, while Lula voters see the announcement as a negotiation tactic. The move comes amid family maneuvers that centrão politicians interpret as signs of potential withdrawals.

Governor Cláudio Castro's plans to run for the Senate and the removal of Alerj president Rodrigo Bacellar bring Rio de Janeiro closer to an unprecedented indirect election for an interim governor in 2026. The situation pits Castro's interests against those of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a pre-candidate for the presidency. The strategy decision is expected by February.

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A poll released early in 2026 shows President Lula leading in electoral scenarios, with Tarcísio de Freitas as the only opponent tying in the second round. The survey highlights the persistence of polarization between Lula and bolsonarismo, with no clear space for a third way. Analysts note that the election will be decided by rejections, amid challenges like incumbent fatigue and effects of judicial convictions.

Federal deputy Paulinho da Força announced his Senate pre-candidacy at an event in São Paulo, gaining support from leaders including Chamber president Hugo Motta. The gathering, masked as a birthday celebration, emphasized pursuing a third way in politics. Paulinho criticized polarization and did not disclose details about his ticket.

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Former President Jair Bolsonaro was preventively arrested by the Federal Police on Saturday (22) in Brasília after tampering with his ankle monitor and with flight risk identified by STF Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The decision comes at the end of the trial for the 2022 coup attempt. Allies reacted with surprise, while the Lula government sees political wear on bolsonarism.

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