Governor Cláudio Castro's plans to run for the Senate and the removal of Alerj president Rodrigo Bacellar bring Rio de Janeiro closer to an unprecedented indirect election for an interim governor in 2026. The situation pits Castro's interests against those of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a pre-candidate for the presidency. The strategy decision is expected by February.
Cláudio Castro's (PL) political strategy as Rio de Janeiro's governor to contest the Senate in 2026 will create a leadership vacuum in the state from April, necessitating an indirect election for an interim 'tampão' government in the first half of the year. The removal of Rodrigo Bacellar (União Brasil), president of the Rio de Janeiro Legislative Assembly (Alerj), ordered by Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes, has intensified the debate. Bacellar was ousted on suspicion of leaking information about the operation that arrested former deputy TH Joias, linked to the Comando Vermelho, though he denies the charges.
The original plan, outlined in the first half of 2025, called for Castro's resignation to make way for Bacellar, who would be elected interim governor by the Alerj and run for re-election in October. The breakdown began in May 2025, when then-Vice Governor Thiago Pampolha stepped down to take a seat on the State Audit Court (TCE), paving the way for Bacellar.
Now, interests clash with those of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), who aims to build a strong platform in Rio for his pre-candidacy to the presidency. Together with Deputy Altineu Côrtes, PL-RJ president, they will decide the new approach by February. Castro supports nominating Nicola Miccione, his Civil House secretary and recent PL affiliate, as a technical figure without electoral ambitions, ensuring machine support for his Senate bid.
Flávio Bolsonaro prefers a candidate who will run for state governor in October to bolster his base. The PL plans polls on potential contenders, including Cities Secretary Douglas Ruas (PL), son of São Gonçalo's mayor; Civil Police Secretary Felipe Curi, noted for the north zone operation resulting in 122 deaths; Itaboraí Mayor Marcelo Dellaroli (PL), re-elected with 93.79% of votes; and Rodolfo Landim, former Flamengo president. União Brasil proposes Belford Roxo Mayor Marcelo Canella, but with reservations over past militia ties.
Legal uncertainties add complexity. Bacellar faces probes from his phone data, while Castro awaits a Superior Electoral Court (TSE) ruling on alleged irregularities in state foundations' 'secret payrolls.' Rapporteur Justice Isabel Gallotti voted for cassation and ineligibility, but proceedings are paused. Allies hope for delays to manage the succession, with Castro possibly resigning preemptively. The Alerj must still set rules for the indirect election, not covered in the state constitution.
