China-EU EV tariff agreement seen cutting shipments but boosting profitability

The European Commission and China have agreed to replace anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles with minimum price undertakings. This deal aims to prevent price wars and enhance profitability for mainland carmakers like BYD. Analysts expect it to curb sales volumes while fostering brand reputation in Europe.

Assemblers of Chinese pure-electric cars from BYD to Leapmotor will avoid a brutal discount war after European authorities accepted price undertakings to replace punitive anti-subsidy tariffs of up to 35.3 per cent.

The EU levied tariffs of 7.8 per cent to 35.3 per cent on Chinese-made pure electric cars in late 2024 following more than a year of anti-subsidy investigations. According to their announcement on Monday, the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, and Beijing reached an agreement to remove the tariffs. Instead, Chinese EV builders agreed to sell their cars at minimum prices on the continent.

Minimum prices would technically temper sales volume, particularly for low-priced small electric cars, Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin said in a research note. But he added that the policy shift would have a positive impact on China’s EV king BYD, which posted a nearly fourfold delivery jump in Europe last year.

The commission outlined how Chinese exporters could submit price undertaking offers, which it said must be “adequate to eliminate the injurious effects of the subsidies and provide equivalent effect to duties”. It encouraged exporters to include commitments such as annual shipment volumes and planned future investments in the EU.

The agreement on price floors will allow mainland carmakers to avoid price wars and nurture brand reputation, analysts say. While shipments may decrease, profitability is expected to improve.

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Illustration of BYD EVs surging past Tesla on a futuristic highway, featuring sales triumph charts and global EV growth projections for a news article on China's EV dominance.
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Building on BYD's milestone of surpassing Tesla with 2.26 million BEV sales in 2025 versus Tesla's 1.64 million deliveries, industry leaders highlight China's dominance while global EV growth accelerates toward 40-50% market share by 2030.

Chinese carmakers sold more than 2.6 million electric vehicles to overseas markets last year, up 104 percent from the previous year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. As the world's leading EV producer, China benefits from low production costs and advanced battery technologies that make its vehicles highly competitive globally. Yet, export growth is now facing a slowdown.

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India is planning to reduce import duties on cars from the European Union to 40 percent from the current 110 percent as part of negotiations for a free trade agreement. This move could make luxury European vehicles more affordable in the Indian market. Brands like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW stand to benefit significantly.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal defended the newly concluded India-EU free trade agreement against domestic criticism, emphasizing its benefits for economic growth. The deal addresses key issues like carbon tariffs and mobility for professionals. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed disappointment, accusing Europe of prioritizing trade over support for Ukraine.

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The EU Commission plans to speed up the electrification of corporate fleets, which Sixt's CEO warns could raise rental car prices. Konstantin Sixt stated that higher vehicle costs would be passed on to customers. He described the draft as an example of well-intentioned policy sliding into a planned economy.

Electric vehicle sales worldwide dropped 3% in January 2026 compared to the previous year, extending the slowdown seen after BYD overtook Tesla as the top global EV seller in 2025. Tesla faced sharp declines in key markets like China, the US, and Europe due to policy changes, rising competition, and reputational issues, reporting its lowest sales in China since late 2022.

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Following initial reports of the EU Commission's plan to soften the 2035 combustion engine ban to a 90% CO2 reduction target, Germany claims success amid shifting geopolitical and economic pressures, with flexibilities allowing continued production of gasoline and diesel engines.

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