ESPN analytics model predicts Ty Simpson as Steelers' top first-round option

ESPN's Draft Day Predictor gives Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson an 11.5 percent chance of being the Pittsburgh Steelers' first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. The model ranks several prospects as potential selections for the team. Pittsburgh trails other teams slightly for the top candidate.

ESPN released its annual Draft Day Predictor, which estimates the likelihood of top prospects landing with specific teams, including the Pittsburgh Steelers. The model assigns the highest probability to Ty Simpson, the quarterback from Alabama, at 11.5 percent for Pittsburgh's first-round selection. Steelers officials have shown limited interest, with no decision-makers attending his Pro Day and no visit scheduled, according to the analysis of the model's outputs reported by Steelers Depot on April 4, 2026. Dillon Thieneman, a safety from Oregon, follows at 7.5 percent. He offers versatility, having played both deep safety and near the line. Omar Cooper Jr., wide receiver from Indiana, sits at 6 percent and has a prior connection to Pittsburgh's new wide receivers coach Adam Henry from 2022. Other notable probabilities include Kadyn Proctor, offensive lineman from Alabama, at 6 percent; Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, safety from Toledo, at 5.75 percent; Avieon Terrell, cornerback from Clemson, at 5.5 percent; and Vega Ioane, offensive guard from Penn State, at 4.5 percent. Pittsburgh ranks second for Simpson behind the New York Jets, third for Thieneman and Cooper behind the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers, and competitively for others. The predictions highlight the Steelers' needs at quarterback and safety, though the team has not hosted top candidates for pre-draft visits. Analysts note such models blend data with uncertainty, advising caution in draft projections.

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Steelers insiders in draft room debate quarterback picks amid Aaron Rodgers' potential 2026 return uncertainty, with Ben Roethlisberger's warning.
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Steelers insiders debate QB draft amid Rodgers return uncertainty

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As the Pittsburgh Steelers await Aaron Rodgers' decision on a 2026 return—following his 2025 division title win—insiders are divided on using early NFL draft picks on a quarterback. While some eye mid-round prospects like Drew Allar or Carson Beck, Ben Roethlisberger warns against top selections, predicting fan backlash.

Draft analyst Todd McShay stated definitively that the Pittsburgh Steelers will not draft Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson in the first round at No. 21. He mentioned hearing the team linked to University of Georgia transfer Carson Beck, potentially in the third round. The Steelers met with both quarterbacks at the NFL Combine amid their search for a starter.

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Pro Football Focus has labeled several potential Pittsburgh Steelers draft targets as 'boom or bust' prospects ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. These include wide receivers Jordan Tyson and Zachariah Branch, cornerback Jermod McCoy, quarterback Ty Simpson, and defensive lineman Caleb Banks. The designations highlight risks such as injuries and inconsistency amid the team's needs at quarterback, wide receiver, and secondary.

Pittsburgh Steelers beat writer Mark Kaboly maintains that the team is likely to draft a wide receiver with the 21st overall pick in the first round. This comes after the Steelers acquired Michael Pittman Jr. and already have DK Metcalf on the roster. Kaboly expressed this view on The Larry & Big Man Show.

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Pro Football Focus has flagged four NFL draft prospects connected to the Pittsburgh Steelers as 'buyer beware' players ahead of the 2026 draft. The list includes Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, Georgia inside linebacker CJ Allen, and Washington cornerback Tacario Davis. Steelers officials have met with each during the pre-draft process.

The Pittsburgh Steelers continue to await a decision from quarterback Aaron Rodgers on his future, with analysts ranking it as the second-biggest question in the NFL heading into the draft. Steelers beat writer Mark Kaboly expressed confidence that Rodgers will return for a second season. The team's recent moves, including hiring Mike McCarthy, signal expectations of his comeback.

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Steelers Depot has released detailed scouting reports on six college football players projected for the 2026 NFL Draft, highlighting their strengths, weaknesses, and potential roles. The profiles cover prospects from various positions and teams, providing insights into their athletic profiles and career statistics. These reports aim to guide NFL teams in evaluating talent ahead of the draft.

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