ESPN analytics model predicts Ty Simpson as Steelers' top first-round option

ESPN's Draft Day Predictor gives Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson an 11.5 percent chance of being the Pittsburgh Steelers' first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. The model ranks several prospects as potential selections for the team. Pittsburgh trails other teams slightly for the top candidate.

ESPN released its annual Draft Day Predictor, which estimates the likelihood of top prospects landing with specific teams, including the Pittsburgh Steelers. The model assigns the highest probability to Ty Simpson, the quarterback from Alabama, at 11.5 percent for Pittsburgh's first-round selection. Steelers officials have shown limited interest, with no decision-makers attending his Pro Day and no visit scheduled, according to the analysis of the model's outputs reported by Steelers Depot on April 4, 2026. Dillon Thieneman, a safety from Oregon, follows at 7.5 percent. He offers versatility, having played both deep safety and near the line. Omar Cooper Jr., wide receiver from Indiana, sits at 6 percent and has a prior connection to Pittsburgh's new wide receivers coach Adam Henry from 2022. Other notable probabilities include Kadyn Proctor, offensive lineman from Alabama, at 6 percent; Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, safety from Toledo, at 5.75 percent; Avieon Terrell, cornerback from Clemson, at 5.5 percent; and Vega Ioane, offensive guard from Penn State, at 4.5 percent. Pittsburgh ranks second for Simpson behind the New York Jets, third for Thieneman and Cooper behind the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers, and competitively for others. The predictions highlight the Steelers' needs at quarterback and safety, though the team has not hosted top candidates for pre-draft visits. Analysts note such models blend data with uncertainty, advising caution in draft projections.

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Steelers insiders in draft room debate quarterback picks amid Aaron Rodgers' potential 2026 return uncertainty, with Ben Roethlisberger's warning.
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Steelers insiders debate QB draft amid Rodgers return uncertainty

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As the Pittsburgh Steelers await Aaron Rodgers' decision on a 2026 return—following his 2025 division title win—insiders are divided on using early NFL draft picks on a quarterback. While some eye mid-round prospects like Drew Allar or Carson Beck, Ben Roethlisberger warns against top selections, predicting fan backlash.

Draft analyst Todd McShay stated definitively that the Pittsburgh Steelers will not draft Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson in the first round at No. 21. He mentioned hearing the team linked to University of Georgia transfer Carson Beck, potentially in the third round. The Steelers met with both quarterbacks at the NFL Combine amid their search for a starter.

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ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter named the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals as logical landing spots for Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson in the upcoming NFL draft. He omitted the Pittsburgh Steelers despite local buzz around the hometown prospect. Schefter suggested the teams might trade up late in the first round to select him.

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the 2026 NFL Draft with 12 picks, including five in the first three rounds, after addressing several needs in free agency. Experts such as Todd McShay and Ross McCorkle emphasize priorities like offensive line, wide receiver, and safety. Recent history suggests value at the No. 21 pick.

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CBS Sports analyst Ryan Wilson argued that edge rusher ranks among the Pittsburgh Steelers' top needs ahead of the NFL draft. He suggested drafting Clemson defensive end T.J. Parker at No. 21 overall is a reasonable idea. Wilson highlighted concerns about the position's future depth on Pittsburgh's roster.

Pro Football Focus analyst Gordon McGuinness released a three-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting the Pittsburgh Steelers to select Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane at No. 21 overall to replace Isaac Seumalo. Additional picks target wide receiver, safety, quarterback, and defensive line needs following free agency.

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CBS Sports analyst Ryan Wilson ranked the Pittsburgh Steelers' 2026 NFL Draft class 30th among all 32 teams, assigning it a C+ grade. He praised wide receiver Germie Bernard as the best route runner in the draft and cornerback Daylen Everette as the best value pick. The ranking placed the Steelers just ahead of the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars.

 

 

 

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