Global oil price drop raises hopes of lower fuel costs in Kenya

Global crude oil prices fell more than 12 percent this week, prompting expectations of possible relief at Kenyan fuel pumps in the coming weeks. The decline followed a preliminary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. Kenya imports most of its petroleum and remains sensitive to movements in international markets.

Murban crude oil prices dropped to USD 74.41 per barrel from USD 84.60 a week earlier, according to the Central Bank of Kenya weekly bulletin. The fall of Ksh 1,319 per barrel came after tensions in the Middle East eased and Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has noted that local pump prices do not adjust immediately to global changes. Fuel discharged in any month is priced using the previous month’s benchmark rates, creating a built-in lag.

The full effect of the latest decline is therefore expected to appear in the August review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority. Earlier relief remains possible if the government and EPRA decide to pass on the lower costs sooner.

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Illustration depicting surging oil prices over 115 USD due to Middle East conflict, with economic impacts on Indonesia including rupiah weakening.
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Global oil prices surpass 115 USD due to Middle East conflict

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Global crude oil prices have surpassed 115 USD per barrel, triggered by escalation in the Iran-AS-Israel war and Houthi threats. Economists warn of fiscal risks for Indonesia, including rupiah weakening to Rp17,002 per USD and potential APBN deficit. Pertamina denies rumors of non-subsidy fuel price hikes starting April 1, 2026.

Global oil prices dropped sharply on May 7, 2026, after US President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran was very possible, sparking optimism for lower pump prices in the Philippines.

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Kenya's government has spent more than Ksh 11 billion in two months to keep diesel and kerosene prices steady. The move has raised questions because kerosene makes up less than 1 per cent of national fuel use.

Following last week's rollbacks, diesel prices are forecast to drop another P17 to P19 per liter and gasoline P2 to P3 per liter starting April 21, potentially taking diesel below P130, as Middle East tensions ease further with a holding ceasefire.

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Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has claimed President William Ruto directed EPRA to keep kerosene prices unchanged despite petrol and diesel hikes. The move aims to protect low-income households. The government also introduced a Ksh6.2 billion fuel subsidy and cut VAT on fuel.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has warned that Kenya's shilling could fall to Ksh180 per US dollar if the government-to-government fuel import deal is ended. He spoke on May 23 in Siaya County while defending the arrangement.

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Crude oil prices dropped below $95 per barrel on April 15, marking a second consecutive day of declines. The fall stems from optimism over potential renewed U.S.-Iran talks to address Middle East supply issues following the Strait of Hormuz closure. Donald Trump signaled that negotiations could resume soon.

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