Hermès Q1 sales rise despite Middle East conflict impact

Hermès reported a 6% revenue increase in the first quarter of 2026, driven entirely by higher prices amid flat volume growth. The Middle East conflict led to a 6% sales drop in that region and a double-digit decline in its US-traded shares. Analysts view the sell-off as overdone, presenting a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Hermès experienced a sharp slowdown in Q1 2026 sales growth due to the ongoing Iran war in the Middle East. While overall revenue grew 6% year-over-year, the increase stemmed solely from price hikes, with volume growth remaining flat. Sales in the Middle East fell 6%, contributing to broader market concerns for luxury stocks, which had anticipated a recovery in 2026 after a demand pullback since early 2024. Profitability, however, stayed intact despite these pressures. The company's shares, traded over-the-counter as HESAY, dropped double-digits following the results, compressing the price-to-earnings ratio from 51–52x to 38.3x, according to a Seeking Alpha analysis published Sunday. This reaction is described as overblown by some observers, given Hermès' historical resilience and premium business model. The analyst, who holds a long position in HESAY, highlights robust long-term return potential of 10–12%, calling it a golden entry point for patient investors.

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Illustration of Middle East tensions causing stock market drops, oil price spikes, and investor flight to US dollar.
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Middle East conflict fuels global market volatility and oil price surge

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving the US, Israel, and Iran, have triggered a slide in Asian shares and a surge in oil prices. Investors are turning to the US dollar for safety amid fears of prolonged energy cost increases and inflation. While emerging markets face short-term losses, experts see long-term resilience.

LVMH announced first-quarter sales rose 1% organically to €19.12 billion. Fashion and leather goods sales fell 2% to €9.25 billion, better than the prior quarter but below expectations. The Middle East conflict impacted growth by about 1 percentage point.

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Analysts forecast accelerated growth for the global luxury sector in 2026, with China’s consumer spending rebound as a key driver despite challenges from a volatile property market and oil shocks from the war in Iran. HSBC, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas predict global sales growth of 5.5 to 6 per cent.

Cosco Shipping Ports, a unit of state-owned Cosco Shipping, reported a 1.1 per cent rise in net profit for 2025. Executives expect limited overall impact from recent military conflicts involving the US, Israel and Iran. The firm will closely monitor Middle East developments and explore alternatives.

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Moncler Group reported a 12% increase in first-quarter revenues to €880.6 million, driven by strong performance in Asia and the Americas. The company highlighted robust growth for both Moncler and Stone Island brands amid global challenges. Executives emphasized brand engagement and strategic shifts under new leadership.

The Iran war endangers the growth of German premium carmakers in the Middle East region. While sales stagnate elsewhere, BMW, Porsche, and Mercedes thrive with luxury models in the Gulf states. Supply chains remain resilient despite the escalation, as research indicates.

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Following the early March escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, South Africa's financial markets continue to reel, with 10-year bond yields hitting 9.5% and the JSE All Share Index down 20% this month. US President Donald Trump's announcement of productive talks with Iran on 23 March 2026, postponing strikes, provided brief relief, but oil shocks persist, heightening stagflation risks for emerging markets like South Africa.

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