Nicolas Baverez warns of France's path to third-world status

In a chronicle published on January 31, 2026, economist Nicolas Baverez portrays France as Europe's Argentina, undermined by demagoguery that impoverishes the middle class and drives the exodus of talents and capital. Wealth per inhabitant fell to 38,110 euros in 2024, ranking the country 34th worldwide and 7% below the EU average for the third consecutive year.

Nicolas Baverez's chronicle, published in Le Figaro on January 31, 2026, highlights France's accelerating economic lag. The author describes the country as « Europe's Argentina », where demagoguery pushes large segments of the middle class into poverty while encouraging the flight of brains, companies, and capital.

In 2024, wealth per inhabitant stands at 38,110 euros, placing France 34th worldwide. This figure is 7% below the European average, marking the third consecutive year of decline. Compared to neighbors, the gaps are stark: 25% behind Denmark, 20% below Sweden, 15% trailing Germany, and just 0.5% ahead of Italy. Since 2000, the lead over Poland has shrunk from 60% to 20%.

This sharp drop in GDP per inhabitant translates to rising poverty affecting nearly 10 million French people, with over 650,000 more falling into precariousness annually. Baverez notes that this is compounded by surging debt: household debt reaches 60% of GDP, while the loss of control over public finances burdens taxpayers heavily.

Baverez's analysis warns of runaway impoverishment, highlighting risks to social cohesion and the country's competitiveness in a European context.

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Crowd of protesters in Paris symbolizing widespread dissatisfaction with French democracy and national decline, as revealed by the Fractures françaises survey.
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Thirteenth wave of Fractures françaises reveals heightened democratic crisis

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The thirteenth edition of the annual 'Fractures françaises' survey, conducted by Ipsos for Le Monde, highlights growing distrust in French democracy. Nearly 96% of French people say they are dissatisfied or angry about the country's situation, with 90% believing the nation is in decline. This political instability, marked by governmental crises, strengthens the sense of dysfunction.

France is now poorer than the European average in terms of GDP per capita, according to Eurostat's latest 2024 estimates. This decoupling, which has accelerated over the past decade, fits into a sluggish 0.9% growth in 2025, far below the EU's 1.6%.

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Economists Bernardo Fontaine and Bettina Horst have warned that the poverty drop revealed by the Casen 2024 survey stems mainly from state subsidies, not rising autonomous household incomes. In a Radio Agricultura discussion, both experts—potential cabinet picks for José Antonio Kast—criticized the growing state dependence and fiscal fragility. The poverty rate fell to 17.3%, but gaps persist, especially among migrants.

Only 22% of French people trust politics, according to the 17th wave of the Cevipof barometer, a figure far below that of European neighbors. This disarray stems from 18 months without a majority in the National Assembly, fostering a sense of democratic inefficiency. Ahead of the March 2026 municipal elections, French voters remain committed to voting despite their doubts.

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The differential contribution on high incomes, created in 2025, brought in only 400 million euros, nearly five times less than expected, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance. This tax, aimed at ensuring a minimum 20% taxation for the wealthiest, was largely circumvented by targeted taxpayers. It highlights the challenges in effectively taxing very high incomes in France.

In an editorial, Gaëtan de Capèle calls for a profound overhaul of the French public sector, as digitization and artificial intelligence reshape private industry. He highlights the relentless rise in public spending and uncontrollable debt, noting the lack of significant reforms for decades.

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France's 2026 finance law concludes with a fragile compromise, criticized as a list of renunciations amid demographic, climate challenges and an unsustainable debt. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced on January 16 a lackluster deal, where each party claims small victories amid widespread frustration.

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