South Africa's summer rainfall areas, including Gauteng, have experienced heavy rains this season and are forecast to stay wet through late summer and early autumn. The South African Weather Service predicts above-normal rainfall in most regions from January to May, boosting dam levels but raising flood risks. While this bodes well for the summer maize crop, excessive rain could reduce yields.
Dam levels across most South African provinces are currently high, providing a positive outlook for agriculture amid ongoing wet weather. The South African Weather Service's latest Seasonal Climate Watch report, covering January to the end of May, indicates that late summer and early autumn will bring above-normal rainfall to areas that typically receive significant precipitation.
"During late summer and early autumn most of the areas that receive significant rainfall are expected to receive above normal-rainfall," the report states. In mid-autumn, northeastern regions may see a climatological drop in rain, but central parts are still projected to get more than usual.
This pattern is largely linked to the La Niña weather phenomenon, which international forecasters believe has already begun, although the domestic service describes it as approaching. The forecast benefits the summer maize crop, with farmers planning to expand planting to more hectares this season. However, too much rain risks lower grain production.
Potential flooding looms in vulnerable areas due to the prolonged wetness. Conversely, southern and eastern coastal regions, which rely on autumn rains, face below-normal amounts. "Below-normal rainfall is expected over the southern and eastern coastal areas during autumn; a period those areas receive significant rainfall climatologically," the report notes. This could delay the wet season in those parts.
Temperatures are expected to feature above-normal minimums across much of the country for the remainder of summer. Maximum temperatures remain uncertain for late summer and early autumn. Recent months in Gauteng and similar areas have felt cooler than average.