South Korea's real home prices fall 1.6% in Q3 2025

South Korea's inflation-adjusted home prices fell 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, ranking 47th among 56 major economies. This marks the 13th consecutive quarter of on-year contraction. Data from the Bank of Korea and the Bank for International Settlements shows prices have been declining since the third quarter of 2022.

South Korea's inflation-adjusted residential property prices declined 1.6 percent in the July-September period of 2025 compared to the previous year, according to data released on March 2, 2026. The figure places the country 47th out of 56 major economies, based on information from the Bank of Korea (BOK) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). This downturn represents the 13th consecutive quarter of year-on-year contraction, a trend that began in the third quarter of 2022 after a 3.8 percent increase in the second quarter of that year.

Amid this decline, the South Korean government is intensifying regulations on owners of multiple homes to prevent speculative investments and the conversion of residences for nonresidential uses. Analysts note that the persistent drop in real prices might seem counterintuitive to the public, given attention to nominal price fluctuations and sharp rises in parts of the greater Seoul area. "Price increases in the second half of last year were largely concentrated in select districts within the capital region, highlighting deepening polarization in the housing market," a commercial bank official said.

The data underscores ongoing challenges in the housing sector, with government measures aimed at stabilizing the market through targeted controls.

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Illustration depicting South Korea's 1% GDP growth in 2025 driven by exports amid construction weakness and Q4 contraction.
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South Korea's economy grows 1 percent in 2025

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South Korea's gross domestic product grew 1 percent in 2025 from the previous year, according to Bank of Korea data, but the fourth quarter saw an unexpected 0.3 percent contraction. Strong exports drove the annual figure despite weakness in construction. This marks half the 2 percent expansion of 2024.

South Korea's inflationary pressure eased to the lowest level in five years in 2025, following the sharpest price growth in decades during the post-pandemic period. Consumer prices, a key gauge of inflation, increased 2.1 percent on-year, slightly above the Bank of Korea's 2 percent target. The figure marks the lowest annual level since 0.5 percent in 2020.

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Major financial institutions have raised their 2026 inflation forecasts for South Korea, citing the continued weakness of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar. According to Bloomberg's compilation from 37 institutions, the median projection stands at 2 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from 1.9 percent at the end of last month. The Bank of Korea has also warned that consumer inflation could reach the mid-2 percent range if the domestic currency remains weak.

South Korea's industrial output grew 0.9 percent in November, driven by strong semiconductor production, while retail sales fell 3.3 percent, the sharpest drop in 21 months. Data from the Ministry of Data and Statistics attributes the retail decline to the fading effects of the Chuseok holiday and base effects. Cumulative retail sales for January to November rose 0.4 percent, suggesting a possible positive annual figure.

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South Korea's industrial output grew at the slowest pace in five years in 2025, despite robust performance in the semiconductor sector. Retail sales and facility investment showed signs of improvement, according to government data.

Building on December 24's verbal intervention that spurred a sharp rebound, the Korean won still ranked fifth weakest among 42 major currencies in Q4 2025 with a 3.3 percent drop against the USD. Persistent foreign outflows and overseas investments continue to weigh on the currency.

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South Korean companies reported improved growth and profitability in the third quarter, driven by robust semiconductor exports amid an AI boom. The Bank of Korea's data shows combined sales rose 2.1 percent year-on-year, reversing a prior decline. Key factors included rising exports of high-value products like HBM and DDR5.

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