US prepares for chaotic weather after quiet 2025

A massive heat wave in the Western US and a potential El Niño event signal concerns for unpredictable extreme weather ahead. Despite 2025 ranking as the third-hottest year on record, it saw fewer climate disasters than expected.

The year 2025 was declared the third-hottest on record globally, yet it proved relatively quiet for climate disasters in the US. No major hurricanes made landfall, and the total acres burned by wildfires fell below the 10-year average, a key measure of wildfire season intensity, according to Wired reporting published on March 19, 2026. This relative calm contrasts with emerging threats for the coming period. A massive heat wave is currently affecting the Western US, while forecasters warn of a potential El Niño event. These developments raise concerns about a prolonged stretch of unpredictable and extreme weather across the country. Keywords associated with the report include climate, weather, environment, and El Niño. The article urges preparation for heightened weather volatility following the subdued 2025 season.

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Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
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NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

James Hansen, a prominent climate scientist at Columbia University, has predicted that 2026 will become the hottest year on record, surpassing 2024 due to accelerating global warming and an impending super El Niño. He argues that current sea surface temperatures support this forecast despite ongoing La Niña cooling. Other experts urge caution amid forecast uncertainties.

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Building on the record-low snowpack and early heat risks entering spring, a prolonged March heat wave shattered temperature records across the Western US, from Tucson to Casper. Described as the earliest and most widespread in the Southwest, climate change made it far more likely, compounding winter droughts and raising long-term wildfire and ecosystem threats.

Cities from Paris to Barcelona are staging elaborate drills to prepare for extreme heat waves made more likely by climate change. These exercises test emergency responses, infrastructure, and public awareness amid warnings of deadly temperatures ahead. Officials say the simulations reveal critical weaknesses before real crises hit.

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A new analysis in Geophysical Research Letters shows Earth warming at ~0.36°C per decade since 2014—about double the prior rate of 0.18°C per decade—with 98% confidence after accounting for natural factors. Led by Stefan Rahmstorf, the study warns the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit could be breached by 2028, amid debates over short-term trends and data uncertainties.

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