Several uncertainties surround the potential Jas Gripen deal with Ukraine. Defense expert Martin Lundmark highlights financing, production capacity, and U.S. veto rights as major question marks. Despite a signed letter of intent, nothing is binding yet.
Ukraine has expressed a desire to purchase at least 100 Jas Gripen aircraft from Sweden, but expert Martin Lundmark, lecturer in defense systems at the Swedish Defence University, warns that the deal is not certain. "It is an enormously large deal. No export of that size has ever been carried out from Sweden before, in any industry," he says.
A letter of intent has been signed between Sweden and Ukraine, but it is neither legally nor economically binding. It does not specify the number of aircraft or delivery times. A central uncertainty is financing: "Ukraine is of course bankrupt, and the outcome of the war could also make this impossible if it goes Russia's way," Lundmark states. The Swedish government hopes Ukraine can use frozen Russian assets in Europe, worth the equivalent of 1,500 billion Swedish kronor. The Gripen deal would constitute a smaller part of this, but access to the funds is uncertain, especially as Belgium, which holds some, is reluctant.
The prime minister has mentioned that the first aircraft could be delivered in three years at best, but Saab's production capacity is limited. The existing capacity in Sweden and Brazil is already reserved for these countries, which must consent to prioritizing Ukraine. Additionally, the U.S. has veto rights due to American components in the Gripen, including the engine. "They have a veto right there and the ability to say no, and with Trump's unpredictable decision-making and sudden changes, it can shift quickly," Lundmark warns.
Overall, the expert assesses that the deal is not certain: "It is not certain at all. However, I do not want to be pessimistic. The government offices and Saab have of course thought this through. But three years sounds unlikely to me." He notes that there may be unknown agreements or investment plans that facilitate implementation.