The southern Indian Ocean has emerged as a confrontation zone between Russia and the West, especially France with its overseas territories there. In Madagascar, following a mid-October military coup, new authorities are turning to Moscow to import hydrocarbons and ease the energy crisis. This openness highlights Russia's strategy to undermine French influence.
France holds a strong presence in the southern Indian Ocean through its overseas territories of La Réunion and Mayotte. Yet Russia is quietly exploiting local vulnerabilities to expand its reach, positioning itself as a champion of the Global South and addressing essential population needs, particularly in Madagascar and the Comores.
In Madagascar, tensions escalated in mid-October when Generation Z-led protests against water and electricity shortages prompted a military coup. The armed forces ousted President Andry Rajoelina, establishing a new regime receptive to Russian overtures. Key among these is the import of Russian hydrocarbons to mitigate the energy crisis. “Russian ambitions are not new, and they are not the only ones eyeing the country, but a threshold has been crossed with this rapprochement,” notes a Western diplomat.
This development builds on prior efforts. In 2018, Moscow sought to sway elections by funding candidates' campaigns and stationing Wagner paramilitary advisors. That same year, under President Hery Rajaonarimampianina (2014-2018), a mining deal was struck between Madagascar's state-owned Kraoma and Russia's Ferrum Mining, connected to Evgueni Prigojine, the late Wagner leader who died in 2023. The chrome project failed, resulting in a Russian withdrawal by late 2019.
Military cooperation, rooted in the Cold War era under Didier Ratsiraka (1975-1993), was revived in 2018 and reaffirmed in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Though Russia's footprint remains limited compared to the Sahel, these diplomatic gains challenge the durability of French influence in the area.
