Moody’s Ratings cut Mexico’s sovereign credit rating to Baa3 from Baa2 and shifted the outlook to stable. The move reflects ongoing fiscal weakening and subdued economic growth forecasts.
Moody’s Ratings lowered Mexico’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Baa3 from Baa2. The agency changed the outlook from negative to stable, citing rigid spending, a limited revenue base and continued support for Petróleos Mexicanos.
The Ministry of Finance noted that the 1.3 percentage point fiscal adjustment carried out in 2025 was the largest since 1995. It also highlighted a primary surplus of 98 billion pesos in the first quarter of 2026 and international reserves of 257 billion dollars.
Moody’s cut its real GDP growth forecast to less than 1.0 percent for 2026 and 1.3 percent for 2027. The ministry expressed confidence that the rating will not face further cuts over the next 18 months.
