Moody’s rebaja la calificación de México a Baa3 con perspectiva estable

Moody’s Ratings recortó la calificación soberana de México a Baa3 desde Baa2 y cambió la perspectiva a estable. La decisión refleja el debilitamiento fiscal persistente y el bajo crecimiento económico previsto.

Moody’s Ratings redujo las calificaciones de emisor y sénior no garantizadas de largo plazo del Gobierno de México a Baa3 desde Baa2. La agencia modificó la perspectiva de negativa a estable tras citar el gasto rígido, la base de ingresos limitada y el apoyo continuo a Petróleos Mexicanos.

La Secretaría de Hacienda señaló que el ajuste fiscal de 1.3 puntos del PIB realizado en 2025 fue el mayor desde 1995. Destacó además un superávit primario de 98 mil millones de pesos en el primer trimestre de 2026 y reservas internacionales de 257 mil millones de dólares.

Moody’s redujo su previsión de crecimiento del PIB real a menos de 1.0 por ciento para 2026 y a 1.3 por ciento para 2027. La dependencia confió en que la calificación no sufrirá nuevos recortes durante los próximos 18 meses.

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