Illustration of Mexico's economy showing GDP contraction with charts and Mexico City skyline
Illustration of Mexico's economy showing GDP contraction with charts and Mexico City skyline
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Economía de México se contrae 0.6% en primer trimestre de 2026

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El Producto Interno Bruto de México cayó 0.6 por ciento en el primer trimestre frente al periodo anterior, según datos finales del Inegi publicados el viernes. La contracción fue menor a lo esperado y reaviva el debate sobre posibles recortes adicionales de tasas por parte de Banxico.

El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía reportó que el PIB se contrajo 0.6 por ciento trimestral entre enero y marzo. La cifra final superó la preliminar de menos 0.8 por ciento y las expectativas de analistas.

Frente al mismo periodo de 2025 el PIB creció 0.2 por ciento. La caída se concentró en los sectores de agricultura, manufactura y servicios.

Banxico redujo su tasa clave a 6.50 por ciento a inicios de mayo en una decisión dividida de tres votos a favor y dos en contra. La junta señaló entonces el fin de su ciclo de relajamiento monetario de dos años.

Analistas como Alberto Ramos de Goldman Sachs indicaron que el umbral para recortes adicionales no es alto si el crecimiento permanece débil. Banxico publicará su próximo informe trimestral el 27 de mayo.

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Illustration of Mexico's inflation rising to 4.63% in March 2026, featuring a market scene with rising prices and a billboard display.
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Mexico's annual inflation rises to 4.63% in early March

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Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported annual inflation at 4.63% for the first half of March 2026, exceeding analysts' estimates. The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) rose 0.62% from the previous half-month period.

Preliminary February 2026 data point to a loss of momentum in the Mexican economy after a promising January start. Car sales dipped slightly and formal employment grew weakly, though there are no signs of recession.

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Marcelo Ebrard, secretary of Economy, stated that Mexico will improve its relative position against the United States due to Donald Trump's announced 10 percent global tariff. The official noted that the average effective tariffs on Mexican exports will drop from 4.1 percent to around 2 percent. Meanwhile, Mexico's inflation rose to 3.92 percent in the first half of February, driven by new taxes and tariffs on Asian imports.

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