Argentina heads toward record exports in 2026 despite a more closed world

Argentina is projected to achieve a record in exports by 2026, surpassing $90 billion, driven by agriculture, energy, and mining sectors. This progress would provide relief to the Economy Ministry and Central Bank, which aim to boost reserves. The key challenge is sustaining competitiveness and accessing markets in a more restrictive global environment.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo may breathe easier with optimistic projections for Argentina's exports in 2026. Recent analyses indicate the country is heading toward a record in external sales, with estimates exceeding $90 billion USD. The main drivers are agriculture, energy, and mining, sectors that have demonstrated resilience amid an increasingly protectionist international context.

This outlook would serve as a balm for public finances. Both the Economy Ministry and the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) face the urgent need to build up international reserves to stabilize the economy. Record exports would help alleviate exchange rate pressures and strengthen the country's external position.

Nevertheless, the challenge no longer lies in boosting production but in maintaining competitiveness. In a more closed world, with rising trade barriers, Argentina must prioritize opening new markets and negotiating deals to facilitate access. Specialized sources emphasize that, despite global hurdles, sectoral diversification positions the country well for this milestone.

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Argentine and US officials shake hands sealing trade deal expanding beef exports to 100,000 tons.
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Argentina signs trade agreement with the United States

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Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno announced a trade agreement between Argentina and the United States that expands the beef export quota to 100,000 tons and removes tariff barriers in key sectors. The deal aims to strengthen bilateral economic ties and could boost exports by up to $1,013 million. The agricultural sector, particularly meat exporters, hailed the pact as a major step forward.

Argentina's domestic consumption ended 2025 with a slight 1.3% uptick during the Christmas holidays, according to Salvador Femenia, CAME's Press Secretary. Yet, formal employment has lost over 240,000 jobs since Milei's government began, with ongoing challenges in reserves and exchange stability. Experts like Roberto Rojas emphasize the need to accumulate dollars to meet 2026 debt maturities.

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The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) revealed that Argentina obtained a gain of US$ 3.509 million in 2025 thanks to improved terms of trade, driven by a sharper drop in import prices than in exports. Import prices fell 4.5% year-over-year, while export prices declined only 0.6%, raising the index by 4%. This evolution contributed to a trade surplus of US$ 11.286 million.

Argentina's country risk index saw a significant drop on Wednesday, January 21, 2026, closing at 562 basis points according to JP Morgan's gauge. This decline reflects optimism in local and global markets, driven by a rebound in sovereign bonds and a wide trade surplus. The indicator fell seven points from the previous close of 569.

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The People's Republic of China announced safeguard measures for beef imports starting January 1, 2026, with country-specific quotas and 55% tariffs on excess volumes. These will affect Argentina, with limits of 511,000 tons in 2026, 521,000 in 2027, and 532,000 in 2028. Experts estimate the initial impact will be limited but could encourage market diversification.

Following the Central Bank's December 15 announcements on exchange rate bands and reserves, Argentina's country risk fell to an intraday low of 555 basis points on December 17—its lowest since July 2018—closing at 569 points amid market optimism.

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Jorge Pazos, head of the Chamber of Blueberry Exporters, stated that production remains stable despite a drop in exports, offset by increased domestic consumption. In an interview with Canal E, he emphasized balancing local and external markets, along with the growing role of frozen fruit and Brazil as a key destination.

 

 

 

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